Why it won't be like before

LAS VEGAS – When the first bell rings to start hostilities in the third Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez fight at the MGM Grand Garden Arena here this morning (Manila time), it will mark the 25th round of their mano-a-mano duel.

Both are looking for closure in this intriguing trilogy, only the second in Pacquiao’s career that he’s battling the same opponent thrice. The first was another Mexican, Erik Morales – the last fighter to beat Pacquiao in 2005. Since that loss, Pacquiao has strung up 14 straight wins, including two over Morales.

The third meeting will settle the issue of superiority once and for all, particularly as Marquez has repeatedly claimed he was robbed in the two previous bouts. While the two fights were close, Marquez didn’t win either. The first was declared a split draw and it should’ve been a win by Pacquiao on a split decision if only judge Burt Clements didn’t make a mistake in the first round which he scored 10-7 instead of 10-6, the correct mark since Marquez went down thrice. The second was a split decision win by Pacquiao on the strength of Marquez suffering a knockdown in the third round.

Both fights went down to the wire with hardly any adjustments made by either fighter in the rematch.  Marquez started slowly and Pacquiao went on a rampage early in the two encounters. Marquez took the middle rounds with precision punching, negating Pacquiao’s persistent volume attack. Pacquiao had to stage a late rally in both fights to avoid defeat. It was clear that Pacquiao had difficulty breaking down Marquez’ counterpunching style. Marquez’ habit of going down, however, proved to be his undoing. He was floored thrice in the first fight and once in the second. In all, Marquez has taken the mandatory eight-count in eight fights and it should’ve been nine if only Jay Nady counted the knockdown in the Marco Antonio Barrera match in 2007. To Marquez’ credit, he got up from all those knockdowns to win, draw or lose on points. He has never been stopped in a career that started in 2003.

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Some boxing experts think the third fight will follow the same pattern as the first two and it will go the distance. Others think it will take a different course with Pacquiao winning by knockout. Nobody seems to give Marquez a ghost of a chance to prevail, not even his countrymen. Ring legend Marco Antonio Barrera said Marquez will be lucky to survive eight rounds.

My view is it won’t be like any of the first two fights at all for five reasons. First, they’re older. Marquez was 30 and Pacquiao 25 when they first battled in 2004. Marquez was 34 and Pacquiao 29 when they met in the rematch in 2008. Now, Marquez is a ripe and some fans insist, wasted 38 while Pacquiao, 32, is at his peak. Although Marquez turned pro two years earlier than Pacquiao, they’re almost even in logged fights. Pacquiao has appeared in 58 bouts and Marquez, 59. That means Marquez has spaced his bouts more than Pacquiao. Since their last meeting, Pacquiao is 7-0, with four KOs, and Marquez, 5-1, with four KOs. Marquez’ loss was to Floyd Mayweather, Jr.

Second, they’re bigger. In the first fight, both tipped the scales at 125 pounds, one less than the featherweight limit of 126. Marquez’ WBA and IBF featherweight titles were at stake.  In the rematch, Marquez weighed 130 and Pacquiao, 129. They fought under the superfeatherweight limit of 130. Marquez lost his WBC superfeatherweight crown to Pacquiao in that bout. For their third meeting, Marquez scaled 142 and Pacquiao, 143 – both within the catchweight limit of 144 even as the Filipino is defending his WBO title in the welterweight division where the ceiling is 147. Pacquiao is at his lightest dating back to his four previous fights against Miguel Cotto (144), Joshua Clottey (145 3/4), Antonio Margarito (144 1/2) and Sugar Shane Mosley (145). Marquez also weighed 142 – his heaviest – when he faced and lost to Mayweather in 2009. He couldn’t carry the weight and in one judge’s scorecard, lost every round.

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Third, they’re smarter. Marquez is known as a technician, a master craftsman. Pacquiao is the unpredictable dervish in the ring. But since their second face-off, Pacquiao has become a lot more intelligent, more calculating and more deliberate in his attack. He has learned to use the right hand more as a power weapon than a set-up tool. Marquez has also learned from the experience of showing up against Mayweather a blown-up welterweight.

Fourth, they’re stronger. Pacquiao’s gradual rise in weight hasn’t diminished his power or speed at all. He remains explosive and deadly. He could’ve stopped Margarito if he wanted to and bludgeoned Mosley into submission if he didn’t take pity on the faded warrior. Marquez is under the impression that he has grown stronger with the added weight. Last July, he scaled 138 pounds – three over the lightweight limit – in disposing of Likar Ramos in a single round. Marquez is the reigning WBC lightweight champion.

Finally, they’re more motivated. Pacquiao hasn’t missed a beat throughout his 10-week training camp that began on a fast note in Baguio. He knows Marquez isn’t an easy opponent and remembers how close their first two fights were. Marquez has gone around wearing a T-shirt exclaiming “MARQUEZ BEAT PACQUIAO TWICE” in bold letters. His guaranteed $5 Million paycheck is the biggest in Marquez’ career but it’s $15 Million less than what Pacquiao is assured.

No doubt, the third fight will be unlike the first two. The outcome will be decisive. There will be one thing similar, though – Marquez won’t win for the third straight time.