Breaking down Marquez

If Juan Manuel Marquez is a proficient technical fighter, Manny Pacquiao is the epitome of the non-traditional dervish in the ring. That’s why whenever they clash, fans are in for a treat.   It’s like a match made in heaven, a promoter’s dream come true. The protagonists are almost evenly matched. Even their physical attributes are similar. Pacquiao stands 5-6 1/2 and Marquez, 5-7. Their wingspan of 67 inches is identical. The difference is in their weight – Marquez is a natural lightweight while Pacquiao has matured into a natural welterweight.

For their third encounter on Saturday (Sunday morning, Manila), Marquez will go up two weight divisions in a bold attempt to wrest the WBO welterweight crown. If he succeeds, Marquez will be only the second Mexican to win at least four titles in four different weight divisions. In case you’ve forgotten, Pacquiao is in a class of his own as the only fighter ever to win eight titles in eight classes. Whether Marquez will enter the ring looking like a bloated or blown-up fighter remains to be seen. He has supposedly added pure muscle to gain the extra pounds and if that’s true, he’ll be slower for it. The lightweight division has a limit of 135 pounds and in his most recent outing last July, Marquez tipped the scales at 138. The catchweight limit for this weekend’s battle is 144 pounds. Marquez will likely check in two or three pounds under the limit at the weigh-in.

Because as Freddie Roach often says, styles make fights, the coming confrontation should be a humdinger. Marquez is a clinical counterpuncher who thrives in a methodical pace. His objective is to seize control of the strike zone, the space which defines the punching distance between the fighters. If Pacquiao enters the strike zone and freezes, he’ll be a sitting duck for Marquez’ combinations. If he darts in and out like a cat baiting a dog, Marquez won’t find it easy to connect. Pacquiao will no doubt try to overwhelm Marquez with a high volume of punches – that way, the Mexican isn’t able to get untracked.

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Here are 10 ways for Pacquiao to break down Marquez.

• Don’t linger in the strike zone. Once Pacquiao invades the space where he is within hitting range, he can’t stay too long because Marquez is a deadly counterpuncher. Pacquiao could storm in with a 1-2 combination and before Marquez can react, he’s out of there. That means no 1-2-3s for Pacquiao. A third blow in a series could give Marquez the timing to unleash.

• Smother with heavy artillery. When Nonito Donaire Jr. faced Omar Narvaez a few weeks ago, his marksmanship wasn’t as sharp as the Argentinian’s but he didn’t lose a single round because he threw a lot more. Donaire landed 99-of-666 blows for a 15 percent accuracy while Narvaez, 74-of-299 for 25 percent. Narvaez threw 25 punches a round, way below the bantamweight average of 60. Pacquiao shouldn’t allow Marquez to tee off. He should suffocate him with punches from all angles.

• Use movement to confuse Marquez. Pacquiao should move in and out, side to side, backward and forward. He can’t be a standing target. Keep Marquez’ eyes out of focus. Marquez won’t know where to aim his shots. He’ll be chasing a shadow all night long.

• Don’t telegraph punches. Marquez is quick to read patterns because that’s how technical counterpunchers are. He’ll time his punches depending on what Pacquiao throws. So Pacquiao can’t be predictable. He should draw attention with both his left and right hands. Sometimes, it’ll be the power left hook. Sometimes, it’ll be the power overhand right. It shouldn’t be strictly a right jab-left straight combination. He should try a double or triple right jab or a double left hook, something out of the box to throw off Marquez.

• Slide away from Marquez’ power shots. Marquez is quick on the draw so Pacquiao has to be quicker on the slip. If Marquez likes to throw the right lead, Pacquiao should lean away from it and slide to the opposite side. If Marquez throws the left uppercut to the body after a right straight, Pacquiao should know what side to favor to soften the impact of the blow.

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• Anticipate Marquez’ right lead down the pipe. It’s no secret that Marquez will employ the right straight lead to counter Pacquiao’s right jab. That’s the antidote an orthodox fighter likes to use against a southpaw. Marquez usually follows it up with a left uppercut to the side of the body, the liver area. Pacquiao shouldn’t get caught flat-footed with a shot down the middle. If he opens up to draw out Marquez, Pacquiao could use it as a trick to come close so he can detonate a bomb from point-blank range.

• Jab to disrupt Marquez’ rhythm. Pacquiao’s right hand should be busy from start to finish. He should jab, jab and jab some more until Marquez loses his composure. The jab will keep Marquez off-balance and bother his timing. Marquez’ lifeblood is his combination – if that doesn’t work, he’ll be forced to go to a Plan B which might not exist.

• Start strong and don’t ease the pressure. Marquez is a notoriously slow starter. Pacquiao should capitalize on Marquez’ shaky moments to open up with both guns blazing. He should stay busy until the end and control the tempo. Marquez prefers to dictate the pace and Pacquiao shouldn’t let him.

• Take calculated risks. If Pacquiao thinks he can take Marquez’ power, he should gamble in trying to go toe-to-toe. Marquez has a lot of respect for Pacquiao’s power and the word is he’s only looking to survive the distance and hope to steal the decision in the end. If Pacquiao finds the range and connects solidly, it’ll be curtains for Marquez. The thing is not to take Marquez lightly because he’s a dangerous opponent with everything to gain, nothing to lose.

• Stay one step ahead. If Marquez turns it into a tactical engagement, Pacquiao must be ready to make it a donnybrook. Pacquiao shouldn’t fall into Marquez’ trap. Marquez is smart but Pacquiao must be smarter. The cornermen will make adjustments in the course of the fight, unraveling a battle of the brains between Roach and Nacho Beristain. Pacquiao can’t be outwitted. He’s the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter and on fight night, he’ll prove it against Marquez.

The fight won’t go beyond six rounds with Pacquiao winning by an outright knockout or by stoppage.