Aces in must-win game

Two games remain in the PBA Philippine Cup eliminations and the final standings involving five teams are far from settled. The fate of the five other teams, however, is sealed with Talk ‘N’ Text (11-3) at No. 1, San Miguel Beer (11-3) at No. 2, Barangay Ginebra (10-4) at No. 3, Powerade (3-10) at No. 9 and Barako Bull (3-11) at No. 10.

B-Meg (7-7) is holding on to the No. 4 spot. Alaska (6-7) and Meralco (6-7) are tied at No. 5. Air 21 (6-8) is No. 7 and Rain Or Shine (5-8) is No. 8. Today’s games pit Alaska versus Powerade and Rain Or Shine versus Meralco.

There are only four possible scenarios waiting to happen. First, Alaska and Meralco win. Second, Alaska wins and Meralco loses to Rain Or Shine. Third, Alaska loses to Powerade and Meralco wins. And fourth, Alaska and Meralco lose.

No matter what happens, Powerade is stuck at No. 9. A win will raise its record to 4-10, a win shy of No. 8 even if Rain Or Shine loses to Meralco. But a Powerade win will bring down Alaska to No. 7, a dire consequence, since that means the Aces will face San Miguel with a twice-to-beat disadvantage in the first round of the playoffs.

In three of the four scenarios, B-Meg will stay at No. 4. If Alaska wins and Meralco loses, the Aces tie the Derby Ace Llamados with identical 7-7 records. In this case, Alaska will move up to No. 4 by virtue of a higher quotient and B-Meg will slide down to No. 5. Alaska and B-Meg played each other twice, splitting the games. The Aces won by five and lost by five. Counting the scores of all their games in the eliminations before today, Alaska is plus 36 and B-Meg, plus 18.

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Here’s what will happen in the four scenarios.

First, Alaska and Meralco win. B-Meg, Alaska and Meralco end up with 7-7 records. B-Meg claims the No. 4 spot with a plus 23 quotient, Meralco No. 5 with minus 11 and Alaska No. 6 with minus 12. Air 21 remains at No. 7 and Rain Or Shine at No. 8. In the first round of the playoffs, Talk ‘N’ Text will battle Rain Or Shine and San Miguel Beer will meet Air 21. Ginebra faces Alaska and B-Meg squares off with Meralco in best-of-three series.

Second, Alaska wins and Meralco loses. B-Meg and Alaska finish at 7-7 with the Aces taking No. 4 by virtue of a higher quotient. Meralco, Air 21 and Rain Or Shine wind up at 6-8. At this point, Meralco has a plus 22 quotient, Air 21 plus 1 and Rain Or Shine minus 11. It’s unlikely the outcome of the Meralco-Rain Or Shine game will make a difference in the quotients, meaning the Bolts will be No. 6, Air 21 No. 7 and Rain Or Shine No. 8. In the playoffs, it will be Talk ‘N’ Text versus Rain Or Shine, San Miguel versus Air 21, Ginebra versus Meralco and Alaska versus B-Meg.

Third, Alaska loses and Meralco wins. B-Meg and Meralco finish at 7-7 while Alaska and Air 21 are tied at 6-8. The Llamados are No. 4 with a plus 23 quotient, Meralco No. 5, Air 21 No. 6 with a plus 3 quotient and Alaska No. 7. In the playoffs, it will be Talk ‘N’ Text versus Rain Or Shine, San Miguel versus Alaska, Ginebra versus Air 21 and B-Meg versus Meralco.

Fourth, Alaska and Meralco lose. B-Meg is steady at No. 4 with a 7-7 slate. Alaska, Meralco, Air 21 and Rain Or Shine end up with identical 6-8 records. At the moment, the quotient standings are Meralco at plus 22, Air 21 at plus 4, Alaska at minus 8 and Rain Or Shine at minus 18. The outcome of the Meralco-Rain Or Shine game tonight will not impact on the standings since the Bolts are way ahead and the Elasto Painters way below in the quotients. This will relegate Meralco to No. 5, Air 21 No. 6, Alaska No. 7 and Rain Or Shine No. 8. In the playoffs, it will be Talk ‘N’ Text versus Rain Or Shine, San Miguel versus Alaska, Ginebra versus Air 21 and B-Meg versus Meralco.  

To recap, Alaska is in a must-win game. If the Aces prevail, they improve to either No. 4 or No. 6. A loss will plunge Alaska to No. 7 with a twice-to-beat handicap. It’s a heaven or hell situation. If Meralco wins, the Bolts go to No. 5 or No. 6. A win by Rain Or Shine will not move the Elasto Painters out of No. 8 regardless of the result in the Alaska-Powerade game.

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