Why Manny will beat Money

Floyd Mayweather Jr. looked impressive in pounding out a unanimous 12-round decision over Sugar Shane Mosley in Las Vegas last Saturday but would he have been as authoritative against an opponent who wasn’t as faded?

Mosley, 38, was competitive only in the first two rounds. The grind of a long career that started in 1993 has clearly taken a toll on Sugar Shane. Besides, he hadn’t fought in 16 months and the ring rust was evident as his second wind never came.

Mayweather, 33, had some shaky moments in the second round when he got hammered by right hands. But Pretty Boy Floyd weathered the storm. Mosley was unable to capitalize because he had neither the energy nor the tools to sustain the pressure on Mayweather.

Mosley was a sitting duck for Mayweather who likes to dictate the tempo of a fight with his jarring left jab. Sugar Shane was a standing target for Mayweather. He didn’t move around to create or find angles. Mosley just came forward and soaked in Mayweather’s rapier-like left jab, hoping for an opportunity to land one big punch. Mosley’s head kept snapping back whenever Mayweather threw the jab which was also used to set up the right hand.

By the fifth round, Mosley was sapped, gasping for air. His mouth was wide open. He slowed down considerably. The sting in his punches was gone. Mayweather stepped up his attack when he realized Mosley couldn’t hurt him anymore. After the fight, he boasted that he proved he’s not just a defensive fighter but also a fireball on offense. Still, Mayweather failed to put Mosley down – he tried to but lacked the power to get it done. A cautious fighter who won’t take chances against a dangerous opponent, Mayweather went on attack mode only when it was evident Mosley had little left to offer.

With Mosley out of the picture, Mayweather is now geared to take on Manny Pacquiao in what has to be the most anticipated battle of the decade. It’s the duel that’s destined to happen – a promoter’s dream match-up between a hero and a heel.

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Here are 10 reasons why Pacquiao will beat Mayweather.

• Mayweather isn’t untouchable. Pretty Boy thinks he’s a better fighter than Muhammad Ali, Sugar Ray Robinson and Sugar Ray Leonard ever were. He’s either fooling himself or insane. Mosley showed Mayweather’s defense isn’t impregnable. Mayweather nearly went down in the second round and was staggered by Mosley’s right hand. Pretty Boy has taken the mandatory eight-count only once in his career – against Carlos Hernandez after his glove touched the canvas in 2001. He should’ve taken the count after his glove also touched the canvas in a fight against Zab Judah in 2006 but referee Richard Steele turned a blind eye to it.

• Mayweather brings down his left hand. It’s a tendency that has fatalistic implications. Once Mayweather lowers his guard, Pacquiao will strike in the wink of an eye. It will be Pacquiao’s right hand to inflict the damage on Mayweather’s left side. Mayweather also has a tendency to lower his left hand after throwing a jab. If Mayweather doesn’t double up on the left jab or isn’t able to throw a right in combination, Pacquiao will counter with a right hook.

• Mayweather needs a standing target. Mosley was tailor-made for Pretty Boy because he hardly went side-to-side and stood upright trying to force a give-and-take confrontation. Instead of obliging, Mayweather threw Mosley off-balance by jabbing furiously. Pacquiao won’t stand in front of Mayweather like Mosley did. He’ll use lateral motion, circle out of range and employ a stick-and-run routine.

• Mayweather lacks the power to grab Pacquiao’s attention. It’s probably because of wear and tear in his fists. Mayweather is known for brittle hands. Freddie Roach once said he takes Xylocaine, a pain-killer injected into the hands – the reason why Mayweather refuses to fight in Texas because the state commission bans the use of the substance. Mayweather couldn’t dispose of a much smaller Juan Manuel Marquez and couldn’t even floor an ageing Mosley. In his last six fights, Mayweather has scored only one stoppage – a 10th round knockout over Ricky Hatton and Pacquiao took just two rounds to put the Manchester brawler to bed.

• Mayweather has difficulty fighting southpaws. Pretty Boy should’ve suffered a knockdown in the Judah fight and was badly hurt by DeMarcus Corley. Both Judah and Corley are southpaws. He’s vulnerable to the right hand which Pacquiao likes to throw from his left-handed stance. For a southpaw, the right hand is closer than the left to a right-handed target.

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• Mayweather’s left jab won’t be a problem. Pacquiao will slip the jab because of his head and side-to-side movement. Additionally, Pacquiao has the ability to lean away from a jab by bending his body backwards and take a back step while throwing a punch. Pacquiao’s offense will also keep Mayweather’s jab in check. It’s highly likely that Mayweather will use a counterpunching style because that worked somewhat for Marquez in his two fights against Pacquiao.

• Mayweather won’t see Pacquiao’s punches coming. Pacquiao will rain blows from every conceivable angle. Mayweather will be too busy defending himself and trying to avoid getting hit. Pretty Boy will be hard-pressed to get his offense untracked because Pacquiao will be all over him.

• Mayweather won’t get the chance to use his dirty tricks. Mayweather likes to come in close to an opponent and when the referee isn’t looking, uses his forearms, elbows and shoulders for punching leverage. Pacquiao is too smart to be victimized. He won’t be baited into engaging Mayweather from close range.

• Mayweather won’t outspeed Pacquiao. Pretty Boy has blinding handspeed but so does Pacquiao. What will neutralize an opponent’s handspeed is footspeed. If a fighter is quick on his feet, he’ll be a safe distance away before there is a clear attempt to connect. Mayweather isn’t as nimble on his feet as Pacquiao. Mayweather is quick but Pacquiao is quicker.

• Mayweather won’t outsmart Pacquiao. Mayweather claims he’s the most intelligent fighter on the planet. His uncle Roger likes to say that boxing is a thinking man’s game and that’s why Pretty Boy is always a step ahead of the others. The assumption is Mayweather is a genius. Mayweather likes to play mind games. Pacquiao doesn’t and he’s smart enough to know when somebody’s trying to psych him out. Pacquiao is a chess player. Don’t underestimate his intelligence. He’s brainier than Mayweather and his relatives combined. If Mayweather thinks he can outthink Pacquiao, he’s got another think coming.

How Pacquiao will beat Mayweather is the subject of another column.