Pacquiao in minority for Mosley

MANILA, Philippines - Although the Las Vegas betting odds opened with Floyd Mayweather Jr. a -400 favorite and Sugar Shane Mosley a +300 underdog, Manny Pacquiao is adamant in choosing the fighter less likely to win in what could be the eliminator to determine his next opponent.

Mayweather and Mosley face off at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on Sunday morning (Manila time) with the survivor expected to take on Pacquiao before the year ends.

Based on the early odds, a $400 wager on Mayweather will earn only $100 but a $100 bet on Mosley will bring in $300.

What makes Mosley a threat to Mayweather is his size. And that’s the advantage Mosley insists will make the difference.

“Mayweather’s been fighting guys smaller than him, now he’s fighting a guy who has the same speed that he has and can do the same things he can do,” said Mosley, quoted by ESPN. “There’s always a fighter that can be beat. I was 38-0 with 35 KOs and I got beat. That’s what so great about boxing, things happen in the ring that you just can’t control, they’re just destined to happen and I think something’s going to happen that’s destined to happen – this is my time.”

Mayweather isn’t buying the destiny angle. Neither is he concerned about Mosley’s size. Mayweather realizes that a convincing win over Mosley will set him up for a megabuck showdown with Pacquiao. The money on the table will convince Mayweather to forget about Olympic-style drug testing and agree to what the boxing commission requires.

Graham Houston, writing in Boxing Monthly, said he expects Mosley to put Mayweather under pressure and crowd him to the ropes, the way Zab Judah and Ricky Hatton were able to do and “there certainly could be anxious moments for Mayweather.”

Mosley’s knockout over Antonio Margarito in January last year was a more impressive showing than Mayweather’s win by decision over a much smaller Juan Manuel Marquez last September. Critics said Margarito wasn’t his usual self after the handwraps incident in the dressing room – his bandages were lined with a hardening substance like plaster. Margarito had to be rewrapped and was presumably bothered that a suspension was imminent, entering the ring.

Mosley, 38, has been there and done that. He beat Oscar de la Hoya twice and Fernando Vargas twice. Sugar Shane has held world titles as a lightweight, welterweight and superwelterweight. If there’s anyone who can break down Mayweather’s vaunted air-tight defense, it’s Mosley because Sugar Shane has the size to overpower the Money Man.

In a recent Ring Magazine poll, 17 experts picked Mayweather to win and only two agreed with Pacquiao.

“I think Mosley has a great chance to win,” said Pacquiao, quoted by Joseph Santoliquito of The Ring Magazine. “He’s a fighter. Mayweather is a boring fighter but I think, Mayweather-Mosley will be a good fight.”

Bill Calogero, host of “Talkin’ Boxing With Billy C,” said Mosley will outpoint Mayweather. “In Mosley, you have an older fighter but he is naturally bigger and faster fighter than what Mayweather has been in with lately which will force Floyd to actually fight. Floyd is one of the best defensive fighters the sport has to offer. The big knock on him is that at times, he doesn’t finish the way we would like to see, he seems content with dancing his way to a decision. Despite Mosley’s age, I believe that his speed, aggressive style and power will aid him to victory.”

Hall of Fame promoter Don Chargin said Mosley will win on points. “I make it a very, very tough fight,” he said. “A lot of people figure that Floyd will have a cakewalk but I think Shane’s long layoff will be good for him. I look for Shane to give Floyd everything he wants and then some. I see Shane winning. I base that on watching Shane since his amateur days and I know when he sets his mind to something, he’s tough to beat. I don’t know about stopping Floyd but I see a real competitive decision for Shane.”

Golden Boy chief executive officer Richard Schaefer said the Mayweather-Mosley fight could pull in about three million pay-per-view buys to set a new record although Houston said the estimate is “wildly optimistic.”

“The fight’s monicker – Who R U Picking? – is intended to convey an impression of doubt but the oddsmakers opened Mayweather as a solid favorite at about 3-1 on,” said Houston. “Of course, the oddsmakers don’t always get it right even though Mosley is an obvious underdog.”

In case the Mayweather-Mosley outcome is inconclusive, there is a rematch clause to fall back on. But a return bout will mean delaying the inevitable duel with Pacquiao and fans are eagerly awaiting the Filipino icon’s next bout, particularly if it’s against Mayweather.