UAAP Finals: Flood vs the tide

The calamity that has struck National Capital Region has pushed back all major sporting events for the more urgent needs of our affected countrymen. But no typhoon is going to dampen the fires stoked for the UAAP Finals, what with so many great stories blooming.

Historically, UE has so many ghosts to banish, many of them at the hands of Ateneo. In 1987, the Red Warriors, with defensive great and national team member Jerry Codiñera in his last season, were defeated by the Blue Eagles, whose guard corps included Jun Reyes and back-up Olsen Racela. Remember 2002? In the Final Four, the Red Warriors had the ball against the Blue Eagles with 14 seconds to go. Paul Artadi loses the ball to Gec Chia, who – on the next play – promptly nails the game-winning jumper in one of those rare life-changing moments.

Ateneo goes to the Finals, and wins its drought-breaking championship.

Though UE did get even through their sweep of the field in 2007, they suffered the great embarrassment of getting swept by the returning De La Salle Green Archers in the championship round.

Since 2007, however, it has been Ateneo that has swept UE through five matches.

Other than that, this season’s incarnation of the Red Warriors has been nothing short of miraculous. They have won when they were supposed to, and used a variety of means to do so. Lawrence Chongson does have a method to his so-called madness, and the results are palpable. In their Final Four series against FEU, they downed a listless Tamaraw squad with rebounding and outside shooting, particularly five three-pointers from Paul Lee in the fourth quarter.

In the second game, they forced turnovers in the second half and relentlessly attacked the higher-seeded Tams.

Save for stumbling against UP, Ateneo has been sterling. The Blue Eagles lead the league in offense and defense, raining down 42.7 percent of their field goals and allowing opponents only a dry 34.7 percent. Ateneo’s deep bench, which will be a major factor in the Finals, just got more stacked with the return of forward Nico Salva, who served a one-game suspension for extra-curriculars against FEU.

Ateneo will need the bodies, because UE will be playing at a very high emotional pitch, and seeping into holes in the defense. The Red Warriors will try to throw off the Blue Eagles by playing physical, drizzling fouls and trash talk, particularly against Rabeh Al-Hussaini, whose ego has started to become a problem for head coach Norman Black. The former Most Valuable Player whines about contact, and even cusses the referees out loud, even in a packed Araneta Coliseum. Instead of helping, he may turn out to be the weak link, carried by the current of his frustrations.

Given his history of having strong defensive teams with no real star player, Black will have the advantage in damming up UE waves. Many of the Blue Eagles have had big games this season, so it’s hard to tell who to stop. Two things Ateneo will definitely be leaning on: their ability to change the current by forcing turnovers, and their outside shooting. Getting the ball past Eric Salamat and Jai Reyes will be a tough chore, and it changes a team’s rhythm. Will Lee (14.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 4.9 assists) be forced to do it all by himself, or will Chongson find ways to get him free and save some of his energy?

UE will have to stay out of foul trouble, as well. Their thin front line will not be able to take a hit against the massive Ateneo frontcourt. Beyond Al-Hussaini, Nonoy Baclao (5.8 points, 8 rebounds) has been registering important blocks that the Blue Eagles have been able to run up the floor for easy points. Elmer Espiritu (13.6 points, 8.1 rebounds) is one of four UE players in double figures, with three of them in the league’s top 10 (the only team with that many). But he will have some trouble finding space to swoop in for rebounds against the taller Eagles. His outside shot will be more important than ever, or else he’ll spend more time on the bench watching Ateneo fly past his team.

The Red Warriors are masters of churning up their emotions and channeling them into performance. They will try to get off to a big surge and catch Ateneo by surprise, as is their character this season.

Seven of their players come from the 2007 team, and know that nothing is certain until the final buzzer. They have to sustain the adrenaline rush against a highly technical, disciplined Blue Eagle squad that has faced many storms before. It will not be easy.

Ateneo’s main challenge will be staying consistent, increasing the pressure and not getting caught up in the emotions of the Finals. Ryan Buenafe has not had too many major offensive explosions this season, though his defense has been solid. He will be a tough match-up for UE. UE is third in the league in field goal shooting at 40 percent, a testament to how they can channel through their fiery demeanor. And they love being less favored, slipping past opponents people thought they couldn’t beat.

Ateneo has to keep UE from getting runs throughout Game One. Once UE gets going, they feed off their success, and become even more dangerous, like a tsunami. The Red Warriors have to keep the Blue Eagles from building a substantial lead early, or else they’ll drown.

Ateneo is not FEU or UST, teams that have shown a penchant for leaking away big leads at crunchtime.

The Red Warriors have nothing to lose. They’re the underdogs, they’re playing the defending champions, they have a new coach, and few people expected them to still be playing. UE has been like a devastating flood, viciously washing away everything in its path once it gets going. But Ateneo has been like a powerful tide, unceasing, constant and all-encompassing. You can survive a flood, can you stop the tide?