Houston, we definitely have a problem

The potential loss of Yao Ming for at least one more season has not only the Houston Rockets biting their nails, but the entire NBA, as well.

The economic impact of his loss, even for just a year, has far-reaching implications for the league’s bottomline.

As early as 2002, the American Academy of Family Physicians reported a rise in tarsal navicular bone fractures in active people. It is most common in athletes who indulge in running sports, and is very difficult to spot, which causes further complications as the condition worsens. The bone is located at the top of the foot.

The first symptom is usually pain in the midfoot area, gradually spreading throughout the rest of the foot. Regular x-rays don’t usually pick up the damage right away, so doctors are often led in another direction in trying to diagnose the source of the trouble. Slight injuries are often treated with six to eight weeks of immobilization in a cast. Worse cases like Yao’s often necessitate surgery.

Although track and field athletes account for 59 percent of all navicular stress fracture cases in the US, basketball generates 10 percent of this kind of injury. And stress fractures are quite common overall among basketball players. The lateral movement combined with the constant pounding of running and jumping and pushing off causes little cracks in the bone, which are aggravated unless spotted and treated right away. The most famous case of a stress fracture progressing into a clean break was when Sam Bowie, whom the Portland Trailblazers selected ahead of Michael Jordan in 1984, had his shin bone break clean through during a game.

It is estimated that 20 to 30 million Chinese from the mainland watch an average Houston Rockets game.

That’s millions less of a market for jerseys of the Rockets or any other team they play against, not to mention subscriptions to NBA cable TV programs, and customers for their other ancillary businesses. What’s particularly sad is that the following season was going to be Yao’s first without having to play for China. The 7-6 NBA All-Star was hoping to rest his foot and retire from playing for the national team until the 2012 Olympics.

The Rockets had had their frustrations, stemming from various injuries and other problems. Despite the frequent absence of Yao and Tracy McGrady, they set a franchise record 22 straight wins last season, one of the best in NBA history. When McGrady finally had microfracture and shoulder surgery, they had managed to build a competitive team around Yao. And they finally made it out of the first round of the playoffs, even extending the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers to a seventh game in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs.

Now, the financial problems hound Houston. They can only use the mid-level injury exception to find a player to replace Yao, less than $5.6 million, to get a quality big man. They’ve reportedly just lost forward Ron Artest to the Lakers, thinning their frontline even further. Who will they be able to get for that sum?

Another option, which looms like more and more of a possibility, is to unload T-Mac, who will be getting more than $ 22 million next year, and who never fit perfectly with Yao and even Artest last season. McGrady would often drive into a lane which was sometimes clogged up by the Chinese giant and his defender, making it more difficult to make his trademark acrobatic moves. With that kind of money, the Rockets can get three quality players to shore up the team in the meantime.

One more thought is for the Rockets to just get another legitimate NBA superstar, have him score a bundle each game to make things look exciting, and tank the next season. It would put them in great draft position, with the probability of Yao returning, and a core of good forwards and probably new acquisitions with the McGrady money.

In the meantime, the NBA might find a way to help the Rockets, although that seems unlikely. Like the Gasol trade and Garnett deal that eventually netted the Lakers and Boston Celtics championships, the league would be well-served to make sure their “Chinese” team is stocked with talent. A basic marketing principle states that it takes five times as much effort and money to win new customers than to keep old ones. What will the NBA do to keep millions of Yao’s countrymen interested?

Houston, we have a problem.