The fight to avoid last place is settled but the race to the top is still unfinished business in the PBA Fiesta Conference.
Only two games are left in the double-round eliminations and they’re both “bearing” contests, meaning extremely consequential. Barangay Ginebra (11-6) takes on Air21 (10-7) in the opener while Talk ’N’ Text (11-6) battles San Miguel Beer (9-8) in the nightcap at the Araneta Coliseum today.
From PBA stats chief Fidel Mangonon’s 64 possible scenarios with six games to go, the possibilities are down to just four. The only winning combinations that will emerge after today’s doubleheader are Ginebra-Talk ’N’ Text, Ginebra-San Miguel Beer, Air21-Talk ’N’ Text and Air21-San Miguel Beer. Whether or not there will be playoffs to decide Nos. 2 and 5 depends on the results of the two remaining games.
The main “given” is Red Bull (13-5) is untouchable at No. 1 and has gained an outright semifinals ticket. Another “given” is Alaska (12-6) has a step inside the semis door, guaranteed at least a playoff for the slot. Ginebra and Talk ’N’ Text will attempt to force a playoff with Alaska for the second semis spot.
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Here are the possibilities.
First, Ginebra beats Air21 and Talk ’N’ Text defeats San Miguel.
In this scenario, there will be a three-way tie for No. 2 with the Gin Kings and Phone Pals winding up 12-6 like Alaska. To break the logjam, a combination of the quotient system and a playoff will be used. Ginebra will drop to No. 4 because of an inferior quotient (minus 21) while Talk ’N’ Text (plus 13) and Alaska (plus 8) square off for the No. 2 rung. Air21 will settle for No. 5, claiming the last outright quarters seat, and San Miguel slips to No. 6. So it’s not enough for Ginebra to beat Air21. For Ginebra to clinch a playoff with Alaska, the Phone Pals must lose to San Miguel.
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Second, Ginebra beats Air21 and San Miguel defeats Talk ’N’ Text.
Two playoffs will be necessary in this scenario. Alaska and Ginebra will slug it out for the second semis slot while Air21 and San Miguel will play for No. 5 or the third quarters ticket. Both games will be knockout duels. The loser in the Alaska-Ginebra playoff drops to No. 3 with the consolation of taking an outright quarters ticket while the loser of Air21 vs San Miguel will play in the dangerous wildcard series as the No. 6 contender.
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Third, Air21 beats Ginebra and Talk ’N’ Text defeats San Miguel.
The Phone Pals arrange a playoff against Alaska for the No. 2 spot. Ginebra falls to No. 4 and ties with Air21. The margin of difference in Air21’s win over Ginebra will determine the seeding of both teams. Ginebra has a major advantage in the seeding process because it walloped Air21 by 21 in the first round of the eliminations. That means in case Air21 beats Ginebra today, the Express must win by at least 22 to nail down the No. 4 seed.
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Fourth, Air21 beats Ginebra and San Miguel defeats Talk ’N’ Text.
This is the only situation where no playoff is required for either No. 2 or No. 5. Alaska has a smooth ride into the semifinals at solo No. 2 with a 12-6 mark. There will be a three-way tie for No. 3 but under PBA rules, no playoff is necessary to break the logjam as only the quotient system will be used to determine the quarters seedings. The current quotients are Talk ’N’ Text at plus 8, Ginebra at plus 8 and Air21 at minus 16. Air21 must beat Ginebra by at least 25 to move up to No. 3 – a tall order.
San Miguel will stumble to No. 6 and figure in the wildcard series, playing No. 9 Sta. Lucia Realty in a knockout game. If the Beermen beat the Realtors, they’ll go up against the winner of No. 7 Coca-Cola versus No. 8 Purefoods for the right to join Talk ’N’ Text, Ginebra and Air21 in the best-of-3 quarters.
To recap, for Ginebra to gain a playoff against Alaska for the second outright semis slot, it must not only beat Air21 but Talk ’N’ Text must lose to San Miguel. For Talk ’N’ Text to earn the same playoff, all it has to do is beat San Miguel regardless of the outcome of the Ginebra-Air21 game.
San Miguel’s hopes for an outright quarters ticket hinge on beating Talk ’N’ Text and Ginebra defeating Air21. That’s the only way the Beermen can get a playoff against Air21 for the No. 5 spot. Even if San Miguel beats Talk ’N’ Text, it won’t earn the playoff in the event Air21 beats Ginebra.
So that’s how the chips will fall. As the saying goes, it ain’t over ’til it’s over and in the PBA, everything is good to the last drop.