Top favorite Ateneo has a twice-to-beat advantage over Adamson in a 1 vs. 4 pairing while second-placer University of the East (UE) enjoys a similar edge over No. 3 University of Sto. Tomas (UST) in the UAAP faceoffs.
In the NCAA, it’s San Beda looking to end a 28-year title drought at the expense of dangerous Philippine Christian University (PCU).
Far Eastern University team owner Anton Montinola is cast in an unfamiliar role as an outsider looking into the UAAP Final Four. The Tamaraws, feeling the absence of graduated stars Arwind Santos and Mark Isip, failed to barge into the playoffs.
I caught up with Anton just as he was about to leave home to catch a Fr. Martin Team B game yesterday. Anton is scouting for fresh talent and has a revamp in mind for the Tams.
"We lacked depth this year," sighed Anton. "We had no inside game and no reliable ball carrier. Two years ago, we were strong in every position with Arwind, Mark, R. J. Rizada, Jeff Chan and Jonas Villanueva. So we’re due for a major overhaul."
I asked Anton about his thoughts on the Final Four. As usual, he had juicy insights on what to expect.
Anton said Ateneo should breeze past Adamson.
"I don’t think Adamson is deep enough," said Anton. "I pick Ateneo over Adamson to finish it in a game. Adamson got clobbered by UST in their playoff and gave up about 30 offensive rebounds. If Adamson can’t control the boards, they won’t have a chance against Ateneo because coach Norman (Black) is very effective with his big men, which is his specialty. Intal is like an Arwind to Ateneo and I predict he’ll be the PBA’s No. 1 overall pick next year. Then there are Kramer, Arao and Hussaini. Tiu is back after going abroad for a year and Escalona is very consistent and effective."
If Ateneo battles UE in the Finals, Anton said he figures the odds will be 60-40 for the Blue Eagles. But if Ateneo meets UST instead, it’ll be 50-50.
Anton said UE will be hard pressed to repulse UST despite the twice-to-beat edge if the Growling Tigers are healthy and complete.
"Give credit to coach Pido (Jarencio)," said Anton who pointed out that UST is the only team in the league with elimination round wins over both Ateneo and UE. "The team has size and patience. If they don’t win it all this year, they’ll be favored to do it next year. They play with confidence and don’t take hurried shots. Two years ago, I saw UST play at the Fr. Martin Cup and found their players raw but very tall and athletic and they could shoot. I knew they would be a contender sooner or later."
Anton said Ateneo’s massacre of UST in the first round of eliminations was a fluke and the Tigers proved it by reversing the tables in the rematch.
"UST beat UE convincingly when they played," said Anton. "Jervy Cruz is a double double player and he’s just a rookie. Then, they’ve got Evangelista, Espiritu, Ababou, Cuan and so on."
But Anton said he’s not ruling out a Warriors advance.
"UE thrives when opponents panic because of their press," noted Anton. "They’ve got a twice to beat advantage and that’s big. Their chances hinge on being able to press and disrupt UST’s offense. If UST breaks the press, UE will be at a disadvantage because they’re a little undersized. They’ll do well against a team that has no steady ball carrier. Against Ateneo, they’ll have a hard time because of Macky. UE is well-coached but they’ve got to play their A game to beat UST."
Anton singled out UE’s Bonbon Custodio as the Warriors firestarter.
"I think Custodio will be great for the PBA later on," said Anton. "But he’s error and foul prone. If his offense is on track, UE will be fine. Arellano and Borboran also have to click."
In the NCAA, Anton said PCU is the only team in the league with a chance to beat San Beda so the Finals features a dream matchup.
Nigerian center Sam Ekwe is a dominant factor for the Red Lions while the Dolphins will lean on Gabby Espinas and Jason Castro.
At the SCOOP Sa Kamayan last Friday, PCU rookie coach Joel Dualan said he’s not putting any pressure on the Dolphins in the Finals. He’s even shortened practice hours to give the players a chance to relax and enjoy the feeling of making it to the Last Dance.
Lions coach Koy Banal, known for his defensive orientation, said he leaves San Beda’s fate to the Lord. After an unceremonious exit from FEU, Banal found his way to a winning situation at San Beda and said he has always placed his trust in God’s infinite wisdom.
What a double victory it will be for PLDT chairman Manny Pangilinan if Ateneo and San Beda win. MVP is a graduate of both schools and supports their varsity teams with a passion.