Avoiding the wildcard series

Four teams are playing in the round-robin, carryover wildcard series at the end of the classification phase of this Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) conference and there’s no telling what will happen when the smoke of war clears.

The wildcard format is an innovation the league is introducing in the Philippine Cup as another measure to guarantee each game in the calendar — whether in the classification phase or not — has something at stake.

It also means none of the nine clubs will be eliminated after the double-round classifications. That’s why it’s called the classification, not the elimination, phase.

Let’s review the format from top to bottom.

After the double-round classifications, the top two teams gain automatic tickets to the best-of-7 semifinals. The next three earn outright slots in the best-of-5 quarterfinals. The last four slug it out in a round-robin, carryover series where the best finisher advances to the quarterfinals and the others fall by the wayside. To make things even more interesting, a team that sweeps its wildcard assignments gets to play the top finisher in a knockout game for the fourth quarterfinals slot assuming it does not wind up first.

If the classifications ended today, the standings will be No. 1 San Miguel Beer (11-3), No. 2 Purefoods (10-4), No. 3 Red Bull (8-6), No. 4. Alaska (7-7), No. 5 Barangay Ginebra (6-6), No. 6 Coca-Cola (6-7), No. 7 Talk ‘N’ Text (5-8), No. 8 Air21 (5-9) and No. 9 Sta. Lucia Realty (3-11). In this situation, San Miguel and Purefoods go straight to the semis. Coca-Cola, Talk ‘N’ Text, Air21 and Sta. Lucia Realty face off in the wildcard series. Red Bull, Alaska and Ginebra advance to the quarters outright.

At the moment, the only sure things are San Miguel is assured of a semifinals booking and Sta. Lucia will play in the wildcard round.

The Beermen are on a roll, winning nine of their last 10 outings, including seven straight. Coach Joseph Uichico is working the same magic he wove in leading San Miguel to the last Fiesta Conference title, his sixth overall, and the outlook is bright with both Dannys — Seigle and Ildefonso—back in fighting form.

The magic number of wins to nail down an automatic semis seat is 11. San Miguel, safely in the semis, can move up to win No. 13 by beating Alaska and Air21 in its last two classification games. Purefoods is a win away from joining San Miguel in the early promotion category and has to beat either Talk ‘N’ Text or Sta. Lucia to seal its advance. Assuming the Chunkee Giants lose to the Phone Pals and Realtors, Red Bull will claim the second automatic semis ticket if the Barakos beat Coca-Cola and Ginebra in their last two classification assignments. Red Bull has a plus-4 quotient advantage over Purefoods in case they end the classifications with identical 10-6 records.

Red Bull is the league’s hottest team with five wins in a row. Coach Yeng Guiao couldn’t be more pleased with his boys’ performance. The Barakos are deep in every position and play both ends with seething intensity. Any player is capable of exploding in a game and Guiao does a masterful job of giving each of his charges a chance to erupt as a starter or off the bench.

Ginebra can reach 10 wins if it sweeps its last four games against Coca-Cola, Air21, Alaska and Red Bull in that order. But even if Purefoods loses its last two outings, the Kings won’t be able to qualify for an outright semis berth because they are minus-25 against the Chunkee Giants in their quotient matchup.

The one thing that’s keeping Ginebra’s hopes alive is its huge heart. Romel Adducul, Andy Seigle and Rodney Santos are out for the season with injuries. Eric Menk is resting his throbbing right ankle, hobbled by bone spurs, and won’t be back until the playoffs. Aris Dimaunahan is hurting, too. Despite a depleted lineup, Ginebra won its last two games through guts, determination and a unsinkable will to win. The Kings are repaying the fans for their undying loyalty with an incredible display of courage. They just refuse to lose.

But how long can the Kings sustain their run? Sooner or later, the lack of manpower will take its toll and when reality sets in, the tide will show a dramatic reversal.

Coach Siot Tanquingcen’s goal is to buy time for Menk. If the Kings can make it to the quarterfinals outright, they’ll get a much-needed rest during the wildcard series.

Coca-Cola is on a roller-coaster ride. The Tigers opened the campaign with a 4-0 surge but they’ve lost their last five in a tailspin that coach Binky Favis hopes to arrest before it’s too late.

Alaska is 4-2 in the second round of the classifications and coach Tim Cone is on the verge of claiming an outright quarters seat. But to be sure, the Aces must take care of their last two assignments, San Miguel Beer and Ginebra. Since Don Allado’s exit, Sonny Thoss has delivered huge numbers for Cone whose vote of confidence for the Fil-German is reaping dividends. Willie Miller’s addition makes Alaska less predictable in offense and that’s a plus for the Aces.

Talk ‘N’ Text is far from out of contention. Coach Derick Pumaren is reorganizing the troops and the "extended" classification format will help in the period of adjustment. The Phone Pals have lost four straight but it’s just a matter of time before they wake up and realize their potentials. A team with Asi Taulava, Jimmy Alapag, Ren-Ren Ritualo, Harvey Carey, Mac-Mac Cardona, Don Allado, Vic Pablo, Donbel Belano and Jay Washington is destined for the top.

Air21 has two games left and they’re tough ones—Ginebra and San Miguel Beer. It’s not certain if Ronald Tubid, nursing a partial meniscus tear in the right knee, can play through the injury and Gary David is out for the season with a shoulder problem. Coach Bo Perasol’s boys, however, are overachievers and they’re capable of pulling upsets, like their recent 99-88 shocker over Alaska. Although the chances of escaping the wildcard series are slim, Air21 isn’t fazed. Wynne Arboleda makes things happen for the Express and if the de Ocampo brothers, Mark Telan and Ni˜o Canaleta are on target, they might just sneak into the quarters.

Only San Miguel and Purefoods are safely out of the wildcard series with at least 10 wins each. Sta. Lucia is definitely playing in the wildcard round because it can only reach five wins, assuming the Realtors beat the Phone Pals and Purefoods in their last two classification games, and six teams already show at least six victories. Coach Alfrancis Chua’s gambit is to catch the other teams napping in the wildcard series and if Marlou Aquino continues to play heads-up, the Realtors might just surprise.

That means mathematically, Red Bull, Ginebra, Coca-Cola, Alaska, Talk ‘N’ Text and Air21 are still in the thick of the fight to avoid finishing in the last four spots. The objective is to win as many games as possible because of the carryover system and in the process, it could lead to an outright quarterfinals ticket.

The danger of playing in the wildcard series is anything can happen particularly if the carryover records are not far apart. That’s why from hereon in, expect every game left in the classifications to be a battle for survival.