Van Hoy, 72, should know. He was a judge when Pacquiao halted Marco Antonio Barrera in San Antonio in 2003 and when Larios stopped Manabu Fukushima in Tokyo and was nearly floored in carving out a hard-fought decision over Shigeru Nakazato, also in Tokyo, in 2003.
"Larios is a shot fighter," said Van Hoy in a STAR interview before the Eagle Kyowa-Rodel Mayol fight, where he was a judge, in Tokyo last Saturday. "He’s logged too many miles. That was clear in his last fight which he lost to (Israel) Vazquez. I think Pacquiao will knock him out."
Larios was decked by Vazquez in the first round of their Las Vegas bout last December. He got up to fight Vazquez on even terms then suffered a cut over the eye, prompting referee Tony Weeks to stop it in the third round. Vazquez was declared winner by technical knockout although trainer Freddie Roach said it should’ve been a technical draw since a headbutt caused the wound.
It was Larios’ third meeting with Vazquez. In 1997, Vazquez flattened Larios in the first round. Larios, unbeaten in 20 bouts, admitted he took Vazquez lightly and interrupted his training by staying in the hospital two straight sleepless nights before the fight with wife Gloria who just delivered their first-born Margarita. In 2002, Larios avenged the defeat by stopping Vazquez in the 11th round in Sacramento.
Van Hoy said with megabuck fights against Barrera and Erik Morales in the horizon, Pacquiao can’t afford to lose to Larios.
"There’s a lot riding on the Larios fight for Pacquiao so he just can’t lose," said Van Hoy who retired as director of the Texas Labor Council five years ago. "It’s a risky situation for Pacquiao if he isn’t trained properly."
Although Van Hoy predicted Pacquiao to win easily, he qualified that if the Filipino is not prepared mentally and physically, Larios could pull an upset.
Van Hoy said from the way Pacquiao demolished Barrera and Morales, it doesn’t look like there’s a superfeatherweight who can beat the "Mexican Killer." He added that Pacquiao will stop both Barrera and Morales when they fight again.
Van Hoy recalled Pacquiao beat Barrera so badly that at the time of the stoppage, he scored only two rounds for the Mexican and "I was being generous."
"I think Pacquiao can still fight at 126 and beat everyone in the featherweight division," continued Van Hoy. "So he can dominate two divisions but I wouldn’t advise him to fight at lightweight. There are too many lightweights out there who walk around weighing 155 pounds. They’ll be too big for Pacquiao to handle."
Van Hoy said in his opinion, Pacquiao is one of the world’s three most exciting fighters today with Arturo Gatti and Ricardo Mayorga the other two. He said Floyd Mayweather is the best pound-for-pound fighter but isn’t exciting.
As for Larios, Van Hoy said the Mexican had some shaky moments against Nazakato and was almost decked in the eighth round of their World Boxing Council superbantamweight title fight in 2003.
"Larios looked like he was on the way down near the end of the round when suddenly, his cornerman jumped into ring after the 10-second warning," said Van Hoy. "That stopped Nazakato’s attack. There was some confusion but Larios got off the hook. Was it a deliberate attempt to save Larios? You bet."
In the Mayol-Kyowa fight, Van Hoy scored it a lopsided 117-110 for the Thai champion and gave him the last eight rounds. He was also a judge in Filipino Juanito Rubillar’s failed attempt to wrest the WBC lightflyweight crown from Jorge Arce in Tijuana two years ago.