NBA playoffs for armchair coach

The NBA playoffs have started, with all prognostications saying there will be very few surprises, and conventional wisdom reigns. But how does one discern which teams have the more viable line-ups, who will play better in crunchtime and adapt to the pressures of the post-season? Let’s check out some key factors.

Been there, done that. Over the last two decades, teams that have been on top have stayed there. The more you win, the better you get at it. Take a look at the top teams for the past few years, the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons. They’ve managed to maintain excellence because they have systems that work and, more importantly, the personnel that buy into it. It took the Chicago Bulls seven years to win a title with Michael Jordan because they may have had the tools, but didn’t know how to use them. Later in his career, Jordan was acknowledged for knowing when to give up the ball and trust his teammates to make the big play, something he forgot when he went to Washington.

Pulling up lame. How many contenders have fallen before their time because of untimely injuries to key players? Even this season, various ailments have held back talented teams like the Philadelphia 76ers, Houston Rockets and Miami Heat, who didn’t perform as well as expected. In limited series, a sprain or spasm may only last a few days, but that would be more than enough to lose a pivotal game.

How deep can you go? Coaches often use eight or nine players, but the bench becomes a critical factor in the playoffs. Sometimes, all you need is one great game from a sub to win that crucial match against a tough opponent. Derek Fisher, John Paxson and even former Boston Celtic (and U-Tex import) Glen McDonald have hit their share of big shots to boost their teams to titles.

In the mix. How long has the team been together? What is management doing to bring in the players to make the proper fit? As we’ve seen in the experience of the Minnesota Timberwolves, you need chemistry to make it work. A bunch of all-stars doesn’t necessarily win a title, although they make you get close, as the Los Angeles Lakers proved with Karl Malone and Gary Payton. And, as we’ve seen with the horrendous experimentation of the New York Knicks this season, you also need clear direction from management. The Knicks look like the Milwaukee Bucks of the 1980’s: a collection of high-scoring, same-sized guards who never seemed to go anywhere.

Slow hand. The fact of the matter is that scoring will tend to go down in the playoffs. Coaches can’t afford to be as frivolous as they are in the regular season, because each possession is more important, and turning points are more difficult to engineer. Also, slowing games down can cover up a team’s lack of depth and talent, and frustrate running teams.

The long bomb. Outside shooting becomes a major factor when the lane is packed in a half-court set-up, which is why Robert Horry, a.k.a. "Big Shot Bob" is still around, and the Spurs are still potent. The main reason the Indiana Pacers were always up there was that Reggie Miller hit more three-pointers in the last two minutes than any other player in the history of the league.

He said, we said. Coaching in the NBA is in a transition period. Many of the coaches from the ABA era and the NBA of the 1960’s and 1970’s are getting too old for the grueling stresses of the game, and many college coaches are having second thoughts about leaving their well-playing, secure jobs for the monstrous troubles of dealing with egos and other emotional New Jack player problems. This is beginning to create a vacuum that is starting to show in teams that have younger coaches whose main frustration is getting their players to play and listen like they did when they were still in uniform.

Triple barrels. Most strong teams have two legitimate scorers on their teams (which is actually the most that teams can afford). But teams that develop a third scoring option (Jordan-Pippen-Grant or Shaq-Kobe + 1 or Duncan-Parker-Ginobili) have gone all the way. It’s simply the best way to be impervious to defenses. Other teams may be able to stop one or two, but there’s no way they can shut down three scorers. That’s why teams with the league’s leading scorer have never won a title (save for Jordan and the Bulls). Most of the teams with the league’s top ten scorers ended the season at least ten games behind their division leaders. Democracy prevails.

Now let’s look at some key stats for some of the playoff contenders.

Detroit — The Pistons only score 97 points per game (in the bottom ten), but allows opponents less than 90 a night (only Memphis and San Antonio are better). The Motor City boys also only cough up 11 turnovers a game, the lowest total in the league by a full two turnovers a game.

Cleveland — LeBron James is considered by NBA.com as the second most efficient player in the league, next only to Kevin Garnett. And the Cavs are among the top rebounding teams in the NBA.

New Jersey — The Nets dish out 23 assists per game, and their biggest offensive weapons - Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and Jason Kidd — their top three scorers — combine for 20 rebounds a game. That’s an amazing number, considering that Carter and Kidd are guards. And it proves what statisticians have been saying for years: Carter is a better all-around player than everyone knows.

San Antonio — The champs better their opponents by close to seven points a game, a huge number. San Antonio is also sixth-best in protecting the ball, a stunning stat considering how active and young their backcourt is. And they have tons of playoff experience.

Dallas — Six players in double figures, seventh in offense, but with almost seven points’ differential with the competition. If not for a few hundredths of a point, Mark Cuban’s posse should be in the top three in rebounding, as well. Forward Dirk Nowitzki’s sixth in overall player efficiency rating, but only because the other guys ahead of him have to score more for their teams.

Denver — 101 points a game, fifth in the league. A middling rebounding team that gives up a lot of turnovers. But they are an exciting team to watch, with six scorers in double digits. And of course, there is Carmelo Anthony, who does a lot of other things that don’t show up in the stats.

Phoenix — The Suns lead the league in scoring by more than five points a game (108 points per outing), and are second only to Miami in field goal percentage (and only by a thousandth of a point). Phoenix is the only team shooting better than 80 percent from the free throw line. They’re also the best three-point shooting team in the league, and dish off close to 27 assists a game, a staggering number that’s almost three assists better than second-place Detroit. And Steve Nash and Shawn Marion are the only teammates in the top fifteen of NBA.com’s player efficiency rating.

LA Clippers — Do you ever remember a time when the Clips made it to the playoffs ahead of the Lakers? Neither do I. They are, however, the second-best rebounding team in the league. Chemistry and composure are big question marks, particularly when other teams are able to stop Elton Brand from dropping his nightly 24 points.

LA Lakers — Surprise, the Lakers are in the top ten in scoring. Surprise number 2, they’re also in the top ten in rebounding. Phil Jackson has cast his lot with the trigger-happy Kobe Bryant, and Lamar Odom has responded to the various challenges thrown at him. But the Lakers are lacking for weapons against the tougher defensive teams in the league. And, if you’ve been reading, gunslingers do not win NBA wars.

Sacramento — Statistically a well-rounded team, the Kings have also unloaded the malcontents who plagued them the last few years in Peja Stojakovic and Chris Webber. Despite the spectacular play of Mike Bibby, the Kings have trouble keeping the basketball, and are among the league leaders in turnovers, with Brad Miller proving to be the team’s most efficient player. Kings love a fast-paced game, and will have to realize that, in the playoffs, they will need to show different looks if they’re going to go farther.

All told, it looks like the Spurs and Pistons will meet again at the end of the road, although New Jersey and Phoenix may have something to say about that. The numbers don’t lie.