Experts agree Manny in toughest test ever

The consensus is it won’t be a picnic. Although he’s slightly favored to win, Manny Pacquiao is taking no chances against World Boxing Association (WBA) and International Boxing Federation (IBF) featherweight champion Juan Manuel Marquez in their scheduled 12-round double title bout at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on May 8 (Sunday morning, Manila time).

Marquez, 30, has vowed a fight to the finish. He spoke of relinquishing his belts "only in death."

Highly-regarded international boxing referee Bruce McTavish said Pacquiao must be conscious of defending himself against Marquez‚ vicious right straight counter.

"Manny’s susceptible to getting hit with a counterpunch," noted McTavish. "Remember that he’s a southpaw. I’ve noticed that after throwing a left, Manny has a tendency to bring down his hand, leaving him open for a right counter. He’s got to be aware that Marquez is a smart kid who’s studied all his moves, his strengths, his weaknesses and his tendencies."

McTavish said Pacquiao can’t afford to fight recklessly and must use his brains to outsmart Marquez.

"I watched Marquez beat (Derrick) Gainer (for the WBA title) and Gainer froze against him," continued McTavish. "Gainer’s a slick fighter but he didn’t do anything against Marquez. Then when Marquez stopped (Manuel) Medina (for the IBF crown), he proved he could outfight a brawler. Manny can’t fight Marquez like a brawler. He’s got to hit and run and move away from him. He can’t fight him straight up."

McTavish said Marquez will probably stay clear of Pacquiao in the early rounds and try to box his way to a decision.

"Manny’s chances are better in the first few rounds," added McTavish. "Besides, Marquez is known to be a slow starter. Manny has the advantage in speed and power so I think he should be able to win by knockout in three or four rounds. But he’s got to play it smart and keep cool. No macho stuff. Marquez is a more dangerous opponent than (Marco Antonio) Barrera at this stage of their careers."

McTavish said trainer Freddie Roach has probably spotted Pacquiao’s tendency to lower his left hand after throwing a punch and made the proper adjustment in anticipation of Marquez‚ countering style.

McTavish said Marquez will try to beat Pacquiao with the same strategy that Masamori Tokuyama used to beat Gerry Penalosa in their two World Boxing Council superflyweight title bouts. Tokuyama employed a hit-and-run style to throw off Penalosa’s rhythm and won both fights on close decisions.

It will come down to fight strategy, said McTavish. So aside from the duel inside the ring, the fight will also feature a battle of wits between Roach and Marquez‚ trainer Ignacio Beristain.

Boxing scholar Hermie Rivera agreed it will be a tactical fight.

"Marquez has prepared long and hard for this chance," said Rivera. "He’s way ahead in his training. Marquez knows how to fight a slugger like Pacquiao. He showed it against Medina."

Rivera, like McTavish, said he anticipates Marquez trying to make the fight go the full route.

"If what it takes for Marquez to win is to run, he’ll run," said Rivera. "I think Marquez‚ chances to win are better if the fight lasts the distance. I see Marquez showing a lot of movement because I’m sure he respects Manny’s power. I don’t think we’ll see Marquez trying to slug it out with Pacquiao. This fight could go 12 rounds."

Rivera said Pacquiao is deadliest in the first few rounds and should try to end it early. If he connects solidly, Marquez will go down, noted Rivera.

An interesting footnote in the run-up to the fight is Pacquiao will be checking in at Flor Rivera’s gym in Las Vegas for light training when he arrives from Los Angeles on Monday. Flor, an Ilocano from Zambales, worked the corners of world champions Luisito Espinosa and Morris East when the fighters were managed by Hermie.