How the odds stack up in Finals

SAN ANTONIO–Bookmakers aren’t too sure how to set the odds in Game 1 of the National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals at the SBC Center here this morning (Manila time).

Top-seeded San Antonio has the homecourt advantage over New Jersey by virtue of its league-high 60-22 record. The Nets (49-33) are No. 2 in the Eastern Conference and eighth overall.

Traditionally, the home team has the edge in the series opener. That’s because of the local crowd support, the hype, and the court familiarity factor. Since the NBA adopted the 2-3-2 home-and-away format for the Finals in 1985, 68.4 percent of teams that won Game 1 went on to clinch the title. Home teams posted a winning clip of 57.9 percent in terms of games, 78.9 percent in terms of series and 66.7 percent in terms of Game 1.

In the last 18 seasons, 10 No. 1 seeds captured the crown but only six of the last 13.

So the figures indicate the Spurs should draw first blood in the Finals. Despite the statistics, the betting isn’t too heavy on San Antonio. The Nets, after all, are coming off a 10-game winning streak in the playoffs and looked awesome in steamrolling Boston and Detroit in back-to-back sweeps. They’re also well-rested and fresh from a 10-day layoff. The Spurs, in contrast, had to scratch and claw their way out of trouble in escaping Phoenix, the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas in separate six-game affairs.

Crystal ball gazers are cautious in picking a winner. All they know is it’s going to be a tough, long grind–probably to extend to six or seven games. The series will be extremely physical and as Allen Iverson likes to say, only the strong will survive.

In the regular season, the teams split two games. New Jersey won, 91-82, in the first meeting at home last Nov. 13 as Richard Jefferson hit 27 points and Jason Kidd compiled 18 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. The Nets scored 21 fastbreak points to San Antonio’s two. Kenyon Martin picked up a technical in the first period–nothing unusual.

San Antonio avenged the loss via a 92-78 decision at the SBC Center last March 6. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker netted 21 apiece. Kidd was limited to 11 points on 4-of-19 from the field, courtesy of Bruce Bowen. This time, the Spurs tallied more transition points, 32-19.

The strengths of both teams are evident–for New Jersey, it’s quickness and for San Antonio, it’s size.

Both teams are no strangers to the Finals. The Nets were blanked by the Lakers in the title playoffs last season. In NBA history, only nine of 56 champion teams emerged from a runner-up finish the previous year so that’s not an encouraging note for New Jersey. The Spurs won their only NBA title in 1999, the so-called "abbreviated" season that was cut short by the infamous lockout.

The Finals will reach out to more than 3.1 billion fans in 205 countries through 96 telecasters broadcasting in 36 different languages. Over 190 international media practitioners are here to cover the series.

ABC-TV, which has the exclusive rights to televise the NBA, will use 31 cameras, including 25 of high definition quality, for the Finals coverage. There will be two periscope robotic cameras on the backboards, a free flight camera suspended on cables above the court, two floor cams imbedded under the playing surface, two above-the-rim super slo-mos, and eight hand-held cameras for quick reaction to situations.

As expected, trash talking has started to ignite the offcourt intimidation.

In yesterday’s press conference, Martin promised he won’t back down in defending Duncan. As if to cut Duncan down to size, Martin ranked him only second to Shaquille O’Neal in the big man category although the Spurs star just took his second straight MVP award.

Martin said he has no special strategy for Duncan. "I’ll just make him work for everything he’s going to get, make him work for every catch, every shot, every dribble, everything," vowed Martin.

Spurs power forward Malik Rose, who plays physical like Martin, told The Star there will be a lot of banging in the Finals. "Game 1 will set the tone of the series," he said. "We’re ready for New Jersey. Playing Dallas was a blessing in disguise for us because the Mavs run like the Nets. We know what we’ve got to do to win."

Nets’ seldom-used center Dikembe Mutombo said he’s prepared to go to war if coach Byron Scott sends him in. "I’m mentally prepared," said the 7-2 veteran who’s been benched by Scott for whining about his lack of playing time. "Goods things happen to those who wait. I cannot see myself sitting."

Mutombo averaged 5.8 points in only 24 regular season games due largely to surgery in his right wrist. In the playoffs, he has played in only four of 14 contests.

Only one player has come out to make a bold prediction as to which team will win the title. San Antonio’s reserve guard Speedy Claxton told The Star without batting an eyelash it’ll be the Spurs in six.

Kidd would’ve laughed off the forecast if he’d heard it. You could almost hear him say, ‘You’ve got to be kidding."