Talk ‘N Text (8-2), Purefoods (8-2) and Coca-Cola (8-3) are safely in the elite circle — no matter what happens in the remaining games up to Sunday. What could change are the seedings. The Phone Pals play FedEx (6-4) on Saturday. If coach Bill Bayno’s boys prevail and the Tender Juicy Hot Dogs beat Red Bull (5-5) in Saturday’s second offering, Purefoods winds up No.1 by virtue of the winner-over-the-other rule. Remember the Hot Dogs dealt Talk ‘N Text its first setback, 92-89, last Feb. 16.
If Talk ‘N Text and Purefoods lose on Saturday, there will be a three-way tie for first to include Coca-Cola. In that situation, the Tigers vault to No. 1 because of its plus-25 quotient. Talk ‘N Text slips to No.2 with a minus-8 and Purefoods drops to third with a minus-17.
Out of contention are Shell (1-9), Barangay Ginebra (3-7), and Selecta (3-7). It doesn’t matter how the three luckless clubs fare in their final games. There’s absolutely no hope to advance — not even for Ginebra despite back-to-back wins over Hapee and Red Bull. That’s because the magic number to qualify for the 8-team quarterfinals is five and neither Ginebra nor Selecta can go up to five wins. One of them will make it to four after they slug it out in their farewell outing on Thursday.
So far, seven teams are guaranteed to advance to the quarters. There’s a last ticket up for grabs and either San Miguel Beer (4-5) or Hapee (4-6) will take it. Tonight, the Beermen and Hapee try to settle the issue at the Philsports Arena.
If Hapee loses, it’s goodbye for the national team. No way out. Coach Joseph Uichico’s back is against the wall. A win for Hapee will mean at least a playoff for the eighth quarterfinals slot. If Hapee beats San Miguel and the Beermen lose to Alaska on Sunday, the nationals barge into the quarters outright.
In contrast, it’s still not do-or-die for San Miguel tonight. Not yet. A San Miguel loss will drop its record to 4-6 with a game against Alaska left. If San Miguel loses to Hapee and beats Alaska, it will figure in a tie for a quarterfinals slot.
But San Miguel isn’t expected to take Hapee lightly even if it’s not in a survival situation. Believe it or not, if San Miguel sweeps it’s last two assignments and FedEx loses to Talk ‘N Text on Saturday, it will crash the magic circle of four and clinch a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarters. Two wins will improve the Beermen’s record to 6-5. A loss to Talk ‘N Text will also drop FedEx’ record to 6-5. In a two-way tie, San Miguel has the edge because of its 79-78 win over the Express last March 5.
Even in a possible four-way tie for fourth place, San Miguel will walk away with a twice-to-beat advantage. Assuming Red Bull and Sta. Lucia Realty (5-5) win their last assignments, they move up to 6-5. If San Miguel wins its last two games and FedEx loses to the Phone Pals, there will be a four-way logjam for the fourth twice-to-beat ticket. In this situation, San Miguel is at the top of the list with a plus-18 quotient. FedEx is next with a minus-2. Red Bull and Sta. Lucia are both at minus-8 but since the Thunder beat the Realtors in the eliminations, coach Yeng Guiao’s squad finishes higher in the pecking order.
If Alaska beats San Miguel and FedEx loses to Talk ‘N Text, there will be another configuration in a four-way tie—assuming Red Bull and Sta. Lucia win their last games. In this situation, FedEx clinches the No.4 slot with a plus-16 quotient. Alaska takes No. 5, Sta. Lucia No. 6 at minus-7 and Red Bull No. 7 at minus-9. The Beermen wind up eighth at 5-6, provided they beat Hapee tonight.
Uichico is in a dilemma. He’ll be coaching against his mother club tonight. Hapee needs a win to stay in contention for the quarters. San Miguel can afford to lose and still remain in the fight. But if San Miguel beats Hapee then Alaska on Sunday, the Beermen could earn a twice to beat advantage, assuming FedEx loses to Talk ‘N Text. So expect San Miguel to go all out for a win, too.
Things would be less complicated if FedEx beats Talk ‘N Text. A win over the Pals will finalize the Top 4 cast although the seedings won’t be settled until the Purefoods versus Red Bull game on Saturday. But don’t expect Bayno to take it easy against FedEx.
If you’re a bit confused at how things could turn out, here’s some advice. Figure out the likely scenarios a game at a time. Start with tonight’s encounter. If Hapee loses, it joins Selecta, Ginebra, and Shell in the graveyard. If Hapee wins, it stays alive for at least a playoff for a quarterfinals slot but still isn’t sure of advancing. As for San Miguel, a loss won’t kill its chances of qualifying but a win could be the first step to lift the Beermen to a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarters.
The prognosis? Action will be hot and heavy in the six remaining games up to Sunday.