A declining inflation of hope

We always like to believe that Filipinos are a happy and resilient people, seemingly unfazed by the bigger and bigger challenges faced as a consequence of bad governance. But inflation felt on the ground, contrary to government numbers, has clearly not gone down enough specially for food. That’s probably why pessimism about what lies ahead in the New Year is at a 15-year high.

The national Social Weather Survey of Dec. 12 to 18, 2024, found 90 percent of adult Filipinos entering the New Year with hope rather than fear. The 90 percent may seem high but this is six points below 96 percent in 2023, and the lowest since 89 percent in 2009. On the other hand, 10 percent will enter the New Year with fear, up by seven points from three percent in 2023. This is the highest since 11 percent in 2009.

The SWS also asked how people felt about Christmas. Their Fourth Quarter 2024 Social Weather Survey: 65 percent of adult Filipinos expect a happy Christmas, down from 73 percent in 2023 which is unfortunately, not too merry and bright.

Mahar Mangahas who was among those who founded the SWS commented: “Holiday expectations of Filipinos have been much more cheerful before.”

The BSP consumer confidence index revealed an improved but still negative consumer sentiment for Q4 2024. As the BSP report puts it, “the overall confidence index (CI) turned less negative at -11.1 percent from -15.6 percent in Q3 2024.”

For the next quarter (Q1 2025) and the next 12 months (November 2024 to October 2025), BSP’s survey reports that consumer confidence also improved.

But the country’s business confidence for Q1 2025 was less upbeat as the overall CI dropped to 40.3 percent from 56.8 percent in the Q3 2024 survey results. For the next 12 months, business outlook was similarly less buoyant as the overall CI declined to 56.4 percent from 58 percent in the Q3 2024 survey results.”

Since the elections have always been an important preoccupation in this country, 2025 will provide some excitement as we vote for 12 senators, 63 party-list representatives and 254 congressional district representatives. At the local level, 82 governors, 82 vice governors and 792 provincial board members.

For city positions, there will be 149 mayors, 149 vice mayors and 1,682 councilors. At the municipal level, the available positions are for 1,493 mayors, 1,493 vice mayors and 11,948 councilors. There will also be 32 parliament members’ seats and 40 party-list seats in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao to be filled up this May 12.

Elections usually pump prime the economy as politicians buy votes, infusing an unusually large buying power in the hands of consumers. Politicians in power will be using a lot of our tax money in their campaign, the reason why they inflated budget items that will be used for pork barrel projects. AKAP can’t be monitored enough so it can’t be used to buy votes and justified as helping the underprivileged, which is also true.

The business elite will be contributing to the campaign kitties of politicians whose favorable decisions they need for smoother business operations. Traditional media will probably not get as much of the campaign budgets with the growth of social media. Politicians will have to allocate funds to buy the services of trolls and so called “influencers” in social media.

If the results of the senatorial preferences survey of SWS and other entities hold out until May, the country’s political future will continue to be bleak. The same tired old names are in the winning circle and judging by their past performances, few can be expected to be interested in getting the country out of its current rut.

Political dynasties still reign so that our senate will end up having two sets of siblings, three brothers, two half-brothers. Voters, based on the surveys, still pick their choices based on name recognition which gives current senators, members of dynastic clans and media personalities an advantage.

None of these things provide a basis for optimism for our country’s good in 2025. We go back to what one journalist back in the 60s called the Filipino people’s “damaged culture.” But it really isn’t just us. An essay at The New York Times observed that the phrase “bottom line” wormed its way into American culture as the standard of achievement. To one degree or another, the bottom line has made them focus on “what’s in it for me?”

Politics, the NYT essay pointed out. has not always been thus.

“John F. Kennedy said at his inauguration in 1961: ‘Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.’ George H.W. Bush based his 1989 campaign on the idea of a ‘compassionate conservatism.’ Both men implied that personal contentment, as well as national prosperity, lay in what one does for others.

“We are all capable of narrow-mindedness, of selfishness and greed. We are all concerned for our own material enrichment. But so too are we capable of fantastic generosity and selflessness…”

“There is no doubt that we have become an increasingly self-concerned society… we may behave worse, but we know better. We do not ask ourselves what more we can do for others, and we suffer for our selfishness because it is when we live our lives for others that we are most satisfied.”

We are in such a mess because both leaders and people are too focused on “what’s in it for me” and forget about the nation. We need a sense of national purpose. We can only pray for national enlightenment before the future is totally lost and we hemorrhage the best of our people to foreign lands seeking better lives.

What we can do for our country is a question we all have to honestly ask ourselves.

May our New Year be happy, prosperous and selfless.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on X @boochanco.