The ‘Big One’: Not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’

Last Tuesday’s Bulong Pulungan at the Sofitel Philippine Plaza  had some shockers for dessert, I needed water to swallow.

According to Ishmael Narag, OIC of the Seismological Observation and Earthquake Prediction Division of the Department of Science and Technology, a strong earthquake, with a magnitude of between 7 and 7.4 is going to hit Metro Manila.

“The question is not ‘if’, but ‘when’,” Narag told the media. The damage to life and property will be significant because Metro Manila is densely populated.

He said his prediction is based on “empirical data” and the length of the fault that runs through Metro Manila, which is 70 kilometers long.

“The longer the fault, the stronger the magnitude,” Narag said. But no one can pinpoint when exactly an earthquake will strike, only that it one day will. The 70-kilometer Valley Fault Line affects seven out of 17 cities in Metro Manila.

But he said preparedness would definitely cushion the impact of such a disaster and save lives. It is extremely important for building contractors to strictly adhere to building codes of safety, he stressed.

Casualties, he pointed out, are the result of hazard + vulnerability. A densely populated place is thus more vulnerable than others.

Narag gave as an example Barangay San Lorenzo in Makati City, which includes the Central Business District. During the day, it has a population of over a million people.

In the event of the Big One and IF the city is not prepared, 1,000 high-rise buildings will be affected and 120,000 people are expected to be injured. That’s just a worst-case scenario, however, if the city is not prepared.

In the event one is caught inside a high-rise during an earthquake, where is the safest place to go?

“Near a shear wall,” he said. “Shear” means “buhos” in Filipino, and those walls are usually near elevators. (Just don’t get into those elevators!)

Narag also said the more dangerous kind of earthquake is the one that causes the earth to move horizontally.

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I remember the 1990 earthquake that hit most parts of Luzon, including Metro Manila. I was then working at the Office of the Press Secretary at Malacañang and was in a meeting with Press Undersecretary Deedee Siytangco when the century-old Kalayaan Hall, where the press office was, started to shake. We thought the shaking would pass and we remained on our seats till Deedee’s assistant Tom entered her office to tell her, “Ma’am, medyo malakas ho!”

So we all ran out of the building and by the time we went to the colonnade in front of Kalayaan Hall, people were already swarming out of the building. We congregated around the small rotunda in front of Kalayaan Hall, and watched the flagpole in the middle of the rotunda sway like a coconut tree during a storm. People were embracing each other and praying out loud. The earthquake seemed to last for an eternity. (On hindsight, I think we congregated in the wrong area because the flagpole could have snapped and hit a couple of us.)

Mobile phones were not ubiquitous then as they are now, and the hardest part for me was trying to get in touch with my son’s yaya through the landline to see if he was safe. When I finally found a line that was working, no one was answering the phone in our house. On hindsight, that was also a good thing because it meant the yaya did not return indoors till she was completely sure the earthquake was over. We all survived in one piece, thank God!

Here are some tips from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology on what to do before, during and after an earthquake.

Before:

•Know the earthquake hazards in your area.

•Follow structural design and engineering practices when constructing your house or building.

•Evaluate the structural soundness of the buildings and houses; strengthen or retrofit if necessary.

•Strap or bolt heavy furniture or cabinets to the walls.

•Check the stability of hanging objects like ceiling fans and chandeliers.

•Breakable items, harmful chemicals and flammable materials should be stored properly in the lowermost secured shelves.

•Familiarize yourself with exit routes (I always check where the fire exits are in movie houses and hotels).

•Know where the fire extinguishers, first-aid kits, alarms and communications facilities are located and learn how to use them.

•Prepare a handy emergency supply kit with first-aid, canned food and opener, water, clothing, battery-operated radio, flashlights and extra batteries.

During:

•When inside a structurally sound building or home… stay there! Do the “Duck, Cover and Hold.”

•If possible, quickly open the door for exit.

•Duck under a sturdy desk or table and hold on to it; protect your head with your arms.

•Stay away from glass windows, shelves, cabinets and other heavy objects.

•Beware of falling objects.

•If you’re outside, move to an open area.

•Stay away from trees, power lines, posts and concrete structures.

•Move away from steep slopes that may be affected by landslides.

•If you’re near the shore and feel an earthquake, move quickly to higher grounds. Tsunamis might follow.

•If you’re in a moving vehicle, stop and get out. Do not attempt to cross bridges, overpasses, or flyovers, which may have been damaged.

After:

•Be prepared for aftershocks. Once the shaking stops, take the fastest and safest way out of the building.

•Don’t use elevators, don’t enter damaged buildings, don’t use telephones unless necessary.

•Don’t panic.

•Check yourself or others for injuries.

•Check water and electrical lines for damages.

•Check for spills of chemical, toxic and flammable materials.

•Control fires.

•If you need to evacuate your home, leave a message stating where you are going and bring your emergency supplies kit.

•Keep updated on disaster prevention instructions from battery-operated radios.

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In life as in earthquakes, pray. It is best to remember that those with a solid foundation survive. And those who are prepared, survive longer.

(You may e-mail me at [email protected].)