Duterte to meet China’s Xi, navigate choppy sea issue

(Conclusion)

Belligerence begets belligerence

But outsourcing sovereign negotiations did not end well for the Philippines, which lost Scarborough Shoal to China. A hard-pressed US with too much on its plate did not do much in the aftermath.

In retaliation against perceived bullying by China, del Rosario orchestrated the filing of the lawsuit against China at The Hague in 2013. 

The Philippines won the battle, but did not win the war. With no one to enforce the ruling, the Chinese still control vast parts of the region.

Tit-for-tat

In a tit-for-tat, China began massive island reclamation in the area in 2014. No one stopped China. Beijing suspended reclamation and militarization after Duterte sought detente.

As the country’s former top diplomat, del Rosario should understand better than anyone else that belligerence only begets belligerence. But he is not one to give up easily.

In March, del Rosario filed a case before the International Criminal Court (ICC), accusing President Xi of crimes against humanity. It is likely to be a futile exercise as China is not an ICC member. For Beijing, it was not just words of impertinence, but a deed aimed at humiliating Mr Xi.

This month, del Rosario called for the Philippines to seek the support of the UN General Assembly in compelling Beijing to abide by the ruling. Again, it is likely to come to nothing. China is one of five permanent members of the UN Security Council with many Third World allies. It would be unrealistic to expect the General Assembly to side with the Philippines.

Del Rosario has come up with creative ways to persistently provoke China, which has been relatively restrained.   

Standing up to China takes guts and can be a means to an end, but not an end in itself. Seeking reconciliation with China requires more than courage. Wisdom is indispensable.

Duterte was not wrong to extend an olive branch to China, temporarily setting aside differences to seek common ground and focus on boosting the long-neglected economy. 

Thanks to the detente, Philippine banana exports to China doubled to $540 million in 2018, accounting for 35.9 percent of the total. 

China, including Hong Kong, is now the Philippines’ biggest trading partner. China has also pledged to invest in and build infrastructure projects in the Philippines, adding to a long list of economic sweeteners.

Chinese tourist arrivals in the Philippines jumped 17.6 percent to 1.26 million last year. But everything has its pros and cons. A tourist, purportedly from China, was caught on camera last week letting her child defecate on the beach, forcing the closure of a section of Boracay. The video which went viral also showed her companion burying a soiled underwear in the sand.

Further damaging China’s image, the influx of Philippine Offshore Gambling Operators has led to 52 casino-related kidnappings since 2017 and the arrest of 119 Chinese kidnappers.

But if Mr Duterte had perpetuated the previous administration’s China policy, an oblivious China would only have further militarized the region. And who is there to stop China? The two countries would have headed down the road of no return: military conflict.

Affronting China would only have closed all channels of communication and worsened tensions. The Philippines stands more to lose than gain by acting as a proxy and doing another country’s bidding. There is no reason for the national interests of the Philippines to take a back seat. 

Del Rosario is a debonair gentleman, but Duterte is the master in diplomacy, managing to turn a foe into a friend in a win-win scenario. - Benjamin Kang Lim is a Chinese-Filipino author and journalist based in Beijing. He was formerly bureau chief of Reuters in Taipei and Beijing.