MANILA, Philippines – All around the world, countries are facing tough economic times. The current financial crisis has led some people to argue that we should scale back our efforts to tackle climate change, and postpone the transition to a low carbon economy.
The argument put forward is that governments need to focus on economic recovery, not on climate recovery, and that current moves towards green manufacturing and low-carbon products should wait and be pushed to the sidelines.
However, a new report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) — ‘The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review’ — explains how countries that invest in climate change adaptation now will better protect their people, economy, and environment.
The report examines a wide range of climate change impacts in five countries — the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Without urgent action, Southeast Asia will face significant difficulties. It is projected that by 2100, temperatures in the region will rise significantly; tens of millions of people will experience water shortages; agricultural production will drop significantly, particularly of rice; large forested areas will disappear; and the region’s rich biological diversity will be under serious threat.
The Philippines is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Being an archipelago, a large proportion of its population and economic activity is found in coastal regions, and rising sea levels will affect over 40 million Filipinos who live in these areas. There will be an increase in heat-related and infectious diseases, including dengue and malaria. Food security will also be affected, as projections indicate that the country would experience a decline in rice yields by as much as 75%.
And it is the poor who will bear the social and economic brunt of the impact. As the ADB report glaringly points out, they are the least able to adapt to climate change due to low income and poor access to infrastructure, services and education. Moreover, they generally live in geographically vulnerable areas that are most prone to natural hazards, and much of their livelihood rests upon climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.
Applying the same model that was used by climate change expert Lord Nicholas Stern in his 2007 review, the ADB found that by 2100, a ‘business-as-usual’ approach will result in combined damages to the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam that would be equivalent to over 6% of GDP on an annual basis — if economic costs, impacts on environment and health, and catastrophic risks are all considered. This figure is more than twice as high as the global average.
The ADB report shows that even with aggressive adaptation efforts, the negative impacts of climate change will continue to worsen. Only concerted global action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions can ultimately steer the world off its current calamitous course.
This is the reason the UK government is pushing for the ambitious, global agreement we all need at the United Nations Climate Change conference in Copenhagen in December. UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Miliband stressed this point, saying, “…[W]e’re all in this together. Climate change is an issue which transcends all others in the way it shows we are interdependent: in how it affects us and whether we can tackle it.”
Despite this dilemma, there is good news. The current economic crisis could offer opportunities — if we can direct policies towards programmes that reduce vulnerability, such as in the areas of clean water, sanitation, and measures that increase the adaptive capacity of the poorer members of society. Investment can also be used to reduce our dependency on carbon and protect valuable forests.
For the Philippines, these kinds of public investments, in both adaptation and mitigation measures, will be essential if the government is to eradicate poverty, achieve the Millennium Development Goals, and make the transition to a low-carbon growth path.
Britain is taking action along these lines, taking a sustainable and low carbon route to recovery in building the economy for the future.
This shift to a low-carbon economy is central to creating jobs and growth in new industries. Last month the British government delivered its very first carbon budgets. These place a cap on the emissions the UK can release over three five-year periods up to 2022, and include a legally binding target to reduce our emissions to at least 34% below 1990 levels by 2022. This will ensure we can help meet our target of an 80% cut in greenhouse gases on 1990 levels by 2050.
But targets and frameworks alone will not solve climate change. One of the key issues to our success is how to further promote cleaner technology. This technological breakthrough is needed to tackle the toughest issue — coal. The future of coal poses a stark dilemma: it is a polluting fuel, but is used across the world because it is cheap and is flexible enough to meet fluctuations in demand for power.
To tackle this, the British government recently outlined plans for the biggest demonstration of carbon capture and storage technology in the world. This includes a major push on technology: up to four new projects to demonstrate carbon capture and storage, each one ten times bigger than the largest currently running in the world, which together means we are doing more than any other country.
The benefits of such technology are not only environmental. There are clear business and job opportunities to be found in green technology, manufacturing and energy supplies. British investments in the country’s renewable energy sector are promising. This year alone UK firm Global Green Power Plc. has earmarked a total of $200 million for five Biomass powerplants in key provinces in the Philippines, and a groundbreaking ceremony was recently held for the plant in Panay.
We have all heard the messages: President Obama has committed the US to tackling climate change and cleaning up energy. The G20 meeting of world leaders, chaired by Prime Minister Gordon Brown, agreed that the recovery of our economy must be sustainable and green.
It is for these reasons we believe the growing international consensus on the shift to low carbon points to hope, not despair. By working together across countries, we can both avoid dangerous climate change, and see our economies recover in a sustainable way. This is the right thing to do for present and future generations.