EDITORIAL - ‘Big One’ reminder

The death toll continues to rise as Myanmar and Thailand grapple with the impact of a powerful earthquake and aftershock that struck at noon last Friday.

Horrific scenes emerged of collapsed high-rises in the two countries, one near the popular Chatuchak market in Thai capital Bangkok, following the 7.7-magnitude quake and a 6.4-magnitude aftershock.

Thailand is no stranger to killer earthquakes. On Dec. 26, 2004, a magnitude 9.0 quake spawned a monster tsunami in the Indian Ocean with waves up to 30 meters high that rampaged across India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand, leaving at least 225,000 people dead. Over 5,000 people died in Thailand alone and more than 3,800 were reported missing, many of them foreign tourists, in the days following the catastrophe.

The Philippines has not yet recorded such a destructive earthquake and tsunami, but it has also experienced powerful earthquakes that left thousands dead and missing, such as the one that struck Luzon on July 16, 1990 with a magnitude of 7.8.

The earthquake that hit Myanmar and Thailand is a reminder about the warning of seismologists that an extensive earthquake fault system running across Metro Manila and nearby areas is ripe for movement and the Philippine capital must be prepared for the “Big One” any time.

This “Big One” is projected at magnitude 7.2 – slightly weaker than the one in Myanmar and Thailand. But seismologists have warned that the movement of the earthquake fault system can cause massive destruction in crowded Mega Manila, leaving up to 33,000 people dead and over 100,000 injured and destroying billions worth of infrastructure and property.

From 2002 to 2004, an Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metro Manila was conducted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency together with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology and the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority on the possible impact of the Big One.

The study warned that public utilities can be severely disrupted, supplies cut off and health facilities overwhelmed. Fires especially in high-rises are seen to rage, with the country lacking the capability to put them out quickly.

In response to the findings of the study, the Building Code has been amended to promote earthquake resilience, but experts say compliance has been spotty. Earthquake drills are now regularly conducted in schools and workplaces, but emergency responses remain inadequate.

The tragedy that continues to unfold in Myanmar and Thailand should remind everyone that the threat of the Big One remains, and there’s still a long way to go in terms of preparedness.