Stopping Duterte 2.0

Marcos 2.0, worried about a Duterte 2.0 in 2028, is throwing everything including the kitchen sink at Vice President Sara Duterte.

The effort must be working, seeing her continually sliding survey ratings – although so are the numbers of President Marcos, which can be attributed partly to the counter-attack by the Duterte camp.

There are many valid accusations against the Vice President. But with the 2028 race just three years away, VP Sara has one thing working for her: the snail-paced legal system.

More than ousting her as VP (and installing BBM’s preferred successor as replacement), the administration wants Inday Sara eliminated as a presidential contender in 2028.

Other emerging “presidentiables” know enough to deny any such ambition at this time, aware that an early declaration of intent almost always serves as a lightning rod for blistering demolition jobs.

Not so the VP, whose chronic foot-in-mouth disease has landed her in her current dire straits. Recently, she admitted “seriously considering” a run for the presidency in 2028.

There are two ways to permanently bar her from public office. One is her ouster in an impeachment trial. Another is conviction for a criminal offense, which has the accessory penalty of perpetual disqualification from holding public office.

Both modes have been set in motion by the administration and its allies. Senate President Chiz Escudero, who has drawn flak for his redefinition of “forthwith,” mentioned a possible way out of conviction by impeachment: Inday Sara’s resignation as Vice President.

The VP must be aware of the saying that she who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day – in 2028.

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Her camp will likely wait for the outcome of the Senate race, to see if she has a chance of surviving an impeachment vote, which will make her resignation unnecessary.

It’s noteworthy though that some folks in her camp agree that her impeachment trial should start and end during the current 19th Congress, or else everything goes back to square one in the 20th. This indicates confidence that she has the numbers in the current Senate to reject her conviction and ouster.

If she steps down as VP, the administration has a second option: her criminal conviction.

But at the usual pace of court adjudication in this country, even if the VP is convicted, it may not yet be final and executory by the time the 2028 elections roll around. Which means Sara Duterte can still run for president.

Considering the emerging 2028 presidentiables, she might win.

Marcos 2.0 can invoke the speedy trial law and rules of the Supreme Court to fast-track her prosecution for grave threats, inciting to sedition, and expected cases for plunder in connection with her confidential funds.

But even if convicted, the decision automatically goes through the appeals process. This means motions for reconsideration before the trial court, followed by elevation of the case to the Court of Appeals, and finally to the Supreme Court if the CA affirms the conviction.

As we have seen in other cases, including high-profile ones, the entire process could take at least a decade until a final ruling is handed down.

Until a conviction becomes final, a person can run for president, even from behind bars. A person is disqualified from running for elective office only if convicted with finality – meaning all avenues for judicial appeal have been exhausted – for offenses involving moral turpitude or punishable by imprisonment of more than 18 months, or for subversion, insurrection and rebellion.

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There are people who won’t mind if the ongoing war between the Marcos-Romualdez and Duterte clans leads to their mutual destruction.

But the circumstances in which the VP now finds herself should prompt reforms in our legal system.

Because of the unconscionable wait for a final ruling on criminal cases, we see so many thieves, plunderers, murderers and other lowlifes roaming free while their cases are on appeal before the courts, laundering their loot for personal rebranding and career shift to politics. And they often succeed.

Too many cases in this country end up in the Supreme Court, including environmental issues as well as business and electoral disputes that should be governed by regulatory agencies.

The situation effectively renders our regulatory agencies inutile. It has also raised concern about endless litigation.

Noynoy Aquino during his presidency often lamented “judicial overreach,” which wreaked havoc even on executive acts. I know Supreme Court justices who agreed with the assessment. But they explained that the 1987 Constitution gave them the power and responsibility, which they couldn’t shirk; they have to carry out their mandate.

They said that this broad authority, or overreach if that is how critics call it, can be corrected by rewording the constitutional provision defining judicial powers.

This will require Charter change, which even Noynoy Aquino, having served as a congressman and senator, would not entrust to self-serving lawmakers during his presidency.

Today, who will trust the current bunch of lawmakers with Charter change, after they mutilated the 2025 national budget for their personal purposes, raided government financing institutions to fund the railroaded Maharlika, and tried as well to railroad Cha-cha through an underhanded signature campaign?

So we’re stuck with the current state of our justice system, in which even plunderers and other felons can be allowed to be free on bail following their conviction by a trial court, until the conviction becomes final – which could take two decades.

By that time, the convicts could have already left the country, or died or reached an age when they could qualify for exemption from incarceration on humanitarian grounds – a privilege, incidentally, that is enjoyed only by convicts with the right connections or surname.

Naturally, seeing criminals getting away with everything in this country breeds impunity, which partly explains the current sorry state of the nation.

Sara Duterte is fully aware of this current state. And she knows it can work for her in her battle against her enemies.

Her initial reaction to her impeachment may not have been an act. A romantic breakup, she said, is more hurtful than impeachment. With the institutional weaknesses, she could survive, and even triumph.