BBM/Marcos ambivalent offensive on Dutertes

Two recent developments highlighted again the ambivalence of the BBM/Marcos approach in their conflict with the Duterte Family and political group. First, is the stall in the Lower House of the impeachment moves against VP Sara Duterte. Second, is the wishy-washy pronouncements on the possible actions of the BBM administration on the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation and possible request for cooperation, in the arrest and taking custody of the persons involved in the bloody war on drugs under the Duterte administration.

Officially, BBM has declared that he is not against the impeachment, but it is not the right time as it diverts the government from more important concerns of the country. Officially also, Executive Secretary Bersamin and Justice Secretary Remulla expressed openness to discuss with the ICC and act favorably to any requests by the ICC, if coursed through the Interpol, even if the Philippines has withdrawn from the ICC. These are classic ambivalent positions. Whether these are part of a deliberate strategy to confuse the enemy, or they have not made up their minds, is the question.

The social and political environment is always dynamic and never static, more so in a developing country like the Philippines. With the midterm May 2025 elections just a few months away, politicians are treading softly and carefully. Assessments of political strength of the contending parties are evaluated while evolving. It is, however, a failing and an indictment of the ruling party if at this time, so close to the election, they have not firmed up their position.

The last two opinion polls have shown that the approval and satisfaction ratings of both BBM and VP Duterte are falling, with Duterte falling faster even in the Mindanao areas. The dissatisfaction with BBM relates to his administration’s inability to control overall corruption in government, while the dissatisfaction with VP Duterte relates to her specific corruption as vice president and secretary of Education, and even as mayor of Davao City. Even with the massive social media/troll propaganda offensives by the Duterte camp, which is outpacing the BBM social media team, the trust, approval, and satisfaction ratings of BBM and VP Duterte are falling.

The neither here nor there peace rally of the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) two weeks ago, which was actually a pro-Duterte rally, may have inputted a factor in the BBM/Marcos offensive against Duterte, but his direct reply to former president Duterte on the budget criticisms and the continuing quadcomm investigation on the extrajudicial killings, were solid counterpoints. Stronger pronouncements from Bersamin and Remulla would have delivered a stronger punch.

February will be a crucial time for the BBM/Marcos team to gain the upper hand on this fight and dominate the narrative. It is the time to thwart any resurgence of the Duterte group to gain more allies and elect more congressmen and senators in the May elections. While it is possible to win or triumph in the last ending days, hours or minutes, it is better to prevent your enemies from taking off or gaining strength. February is crunch time for the BBM/Marcos camp.