‘Give peace a chance’

Remember the song and the movement that grew out of it?

Who would have imagined that a handful of musicians that starred John Lennon and Yoko Ono could help light up a counterculture and anti-war movement that built up over several years, led to thousands of protests, clashes and political turmoil that eventually dislodged “fascist” governors and ran a US president out of office?

In hindsight, it was not just the singers and the song. Americans and other people around the world had gotten tired of the Vietnam war that turned out to be all about sustaining a “war-time economy” that made the weapons industry rich and American families poorer.

They also grew tired of burying their young and innocent men who were dying in rice paddies as well as college campus protests. The song simply became the theme song to a counter offensive already born.

Today, the Iglesia Ni Cristo or INC is scheduled to stage a “Peace Rally.” The action conveys the message that Filipinos need to place greater value on national peace, national unity over political polarization, division and destabilization. When a group as big and as influential as the INC calls for Peace, there is cause for concern.

Regardless of political leanings or parties, there is no denying that the country started out having a politically united administration with great economic potential highlighted by peace and stability.

But the unity ended up becoming a farce, political stability has gone to the dogs, all hopes of a strong economic finish for President Bongbong Marcos are doubtful and what’s worse, the harshest critics of government, the leftists, are leading the charge against the Vice President. With Duterte impeached, who will be next on their list?

The Peace Rally is being labeled as an effort of the INC to stop the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte. Assuming that’s true, Filipinos should ask “Why.” What would or could happen if VP Sara Duterte were impeached? How does it affect Peace in the country?

If VP Sara were impeached, does the Philippines simply move on to the next political telenovela before the May mid-year elections? Of course not.  What we should study is what could be the possible fallout from an impeachment.

I’m not a political analyst or expert but I’ve seen enough since Marcos Sr. to Marcos Jr. or 50-plus years of Philippine politics. For starters, the frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election and only obstacle to any administration candidate will be out of the race. That I believe is why the entire gang in Congress wants Duterte out. They want their horse to win so they can take home more “unprogramed fund” prizes.

If Sara Duterte is impeached, the balance or distribution of power will once again be concentrated in Luzon. Mindanao loses its clout and bargaining power in politics and budget.

All that assumes that VP Sara and her supporters will quietly accept the judgment of Congress – “if” the Senate fully supports her impeachment. But if not, will we once again see what was done to Erap Estrada, done to Sara Duterte, where an organized group worked senators, the media, the church and business groups and the police to do an EDSA 2?

That is not far from possible because I already saw a message in a chat group where some minions inside Congress were conveying to someone that a couple of congressmen will surely “take care” of the media in relation to efforts to impeach VP Duterte.

And what if the Duterte forces as well as the many other political groups that have been displaced by “Contratistas” in Congress all band together to put up their own protests, their own media campaign and their own battle plan in anger and desperation?

The fact is many old political loyalist families in Congress find themselves “cancelled” and ignored and this now fosters bitterness among allies. The Northern Alliance holds up grudgingly in the face of discontent. There are also the political personalities who have been suspended, removed for politically motivated reasons.

Such a fertile hot bed of political grudges is the perfect garden for a proxy war between the US and China. The Marcos administration has openly antagonized the Chinese government by effectively allowing US forces to camp on Philippines shores, short of returning US bases.

It was during the time of Ferdinand Senior that adventurist actions in Sabah, Malaysia backfired and led to the rise of Muslim secessionists groups supported by a Malaysian group. What’s to stop China from sympathizing and supporting the disgruntled and politically displaced? What happens if events and politics conspire, and once again bring rise to a secessionist movement or a split of Mindanao from Luzon and the Visayas?

Let’s not forget that there are groups who wanted to push for federalism or establishment of federal states because they felt that Luzon and Imperial Manila had too much power and control over the lives and resources of other regions. Federalism had many supporters but ironically, it was president Rodrigo Duterte who did not push to make federalism happen.

Could the political drama of an impeachment trigger a “hiwalayan” or divorce, not only in politics but also in geography? We don’t need to have a civil war for that to happen, just the will or enough exasperation to be done with Imperial Manila. It could start with referendums, initiatives that created autonomous regions such as those that created the CAR or BARMM.

Given all these possibilities, the best solution indeed is to give peace a chance or be split up in pieces. Please pray for the Philippines!