Philippines and China at a crossroads

The current front pages of Philippine dailies are again headlining the incursions of China’s biggest Coast Guard vessel in Philippine waters. This so-called “monster vessel” has ignored requests to leave our exclusive economic zone and has even conveyed the message that these waters are part of China. While the Philippines may seem preoccupied with these constant illegal incursions of China, the critical factor that we are still awaiting is any communication as to how Donald Trump views the South China Sea (SCS) situation. The Biden administration made it clear that the US was prepared to defend the Philippines in the event of any Chinese invasion.

Donald Trump and his administration have already made many statements regarding their foreign policy but has not said anything about our part of the world. It is, however, clear that Trump will not hesitate to interfere in the affairs of other countries in order to advance American interests. For example, very recently, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau was forced to resign and Trump takes credit for this resignation. This political event happened after several announcements by Trump that he intends to impose tariffs on Canadian products. He even jokingly said that Canada might want to be the 51st state of the United States if it wants to avoid a trade war.

Elon Musk, the richest man in the world who is now Trump’s presidential adviser and alter ego, has also been publicly supporting extreme right parties in Europe. He has also publicly criticized the current prime minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, who is recognized as a left of center leader in Europe.

Emmanuel Macron, prime minister of France, has also said that he could not believe that the head of one of the largest social media networks in the world would be actively supporting “reactionary political leaders,” obviously in reference to X formerly Twitter and Elon Musk.

In the past, Trump and his new secretary of state, former senator Marco Rubio, have both said that China is the most dangerous adversary of the United States. The world, and the Philippines especially, are waiting to see what the new US-China relations will be like.

While China has continued to act aggressively in the SCS, there is a strong possibility that China’s economic problems in its homeland will prevent Xi Jinping from pursuing any further military adventurism in the SCS.

The year 2024 was not a good year for China’s economy. This has also caused social stress among the Chinese citizenry. There is evidence that there has been an increase in Chinese migration and evidence of illegal Chinese immigration to the United States through Mexico.

There have been reports in China of a rise in random acts of violence against members of the public. These have often involved knifing incidents and the driving of cars into crowds. The Chinese people have accepted the severe authoritarian rule of the Chinese Communist Party in exchange for continuous economic prosperity and improvement in the quality of life.

Because this promise is slowly deteriorating, the Communist Party must become more oppressive, unless it is able to reverse the current economic downturn. Many firms in China are reported to be cutting wages or laying people off.

The government through its state media has occasionally admitted that there are troubles brewing in Chinese society. For example, a few months ago, Xinhua, the government’s official news service, referred to a “complicated and challenging environment of increasing external pressure and growing internal difficulties.”

Last December, Xi Jinping said in an address: “China’s economy has rebounded and is on an upward trajectory.” This was a public admission that the Chinese economy had suffered during the last few years.

With so much troubles at home, Xi may not be inclined to take aggressive actions abroad, including in the SCS.

The question of major interest to countries like the Philippines is the direction of the Chinese foreign policy in the next few years.

I do not believe that China has given up its goal to replace the United States as the world’s dominant power. The four-nation alliance of China, Iran, North Korea and Russia continues to pose a major problem to peace and stability in many regions in the world. Beijing has not stopped its disinformation campaign against countries that it deems as threats to China’s ascendancy as the world’s superpower. For example, there have been recent reports that the source of hacking of Philippine government and military networks came from China-based sources.

On the other hand, China’s internal economic problem could lead to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) adopting a nationalist agenda to distract its people from the economic difficulties they are enduring now. The CCP will always have its dominance of China’s society and economy as its main goal. In 2016, Xi said: “If we do not take preventive measures or address them properly, they will add up, escalate and evolve, from minor ones to major ones, from regional ones to systemic ones, and from international ones to domestic ones, eventually threatening the Party’s governance and state security.”

We must await Trump’s decision on how he will treat the US Defense Treaty with the Philippines. At the same time, the Philippines must take every step to prepare to defend itself.