Trump 2.0

In the end, decency could not carry the day. Trump won.

Once again, the pollsters managed to understate the depth of his electoral support. Trump swept all the swing states. His party has taken control of the Senate and appears on its way to control the House of Representatives as well.

With the Supreme Court dominated by his conservative appointees from his first term, ruling the president enjoyed immunity from nearly all official actions, Trump basically holds sway over the entire government. Trump 2.0 will have no guardrails, no check on its drive to remold policies on everything from reproductive rights to Ukraine.

His first administration was marked by nearly constant policy chaos. His next term will be chaos on steroids.

Trump the political narcissist interprets his sweeping mandate as a license to bend the entire US government to his will. His party, led by loyalists, will not likely stand in his way. He did promise to cleanse the bureaucracy of career people and fill the ranks with his loyalists.

He once said during the campaign that he would get rid of the generals commanding the mighty US military establishment. This seems to have been made imminent after all the criticism of Trump aired by retired generals and senior security officials – including those who served in his first administration.

There are many things that can be said about the errors of Kamala Harris’ campaign. To begin with, she chose a person with no gravitas to be her running mate (fearful, as critics claim, that she might be overshadowed). She invested in her campaign on reproductive rights even as polls scream that it was the economy that was foremost on people’s minds.

To be fair, Kamala had only a little more than a hundred days to campaign for the presidency. It was not enough time to introduce herself fully to the multifold constituencies. Consider that she was challenging the Trump brand, assiduously cultivated over decades.

Kamala’s efforts were hampered by the extreme unpopularity of Joe Biden. She failed, early in the campaign, to distinguish herself from her mentor. There was little time, in a hurried campaign, to dwell on the nuances.

She was also hampered by her party’s noisy left wing. Recall that pro-Hamas protesters heckled her rallies but did not do the same for Trump, who had a tougher pro-Israel stance. Kamala, too, carries a political history considered too progressive by many voters.

The Democratic Party’s left flank is a burden for winning elections. Having them is like running a marathon with an old tire around your neck.

But it is not productive to dwell on the failings of Kamala’s campaign. The votes have been tallied. The task at the moment involves fretting about where Trump intends to take his country – and the rest of the world – over the next four years.

Trump’s electoral victory is a watershed moment. For the next generation, America’s interminable culture wars will be mediated by an extremely conservative Supreme Court. Two or three justices will probably retire while Trump is president. They will be replaced with younger but no less conservative magistrates by the Republican establishment.

Most of America’s already meager efforts to combat climate change will likely be abandoned. Trump did call climate change a hoax.

Needless to say, the pro-life groups driven by the Christian Right will continue to push their agenda to the hilt. The struggle for reproductive rights and gender equality will be pushed to state-level legislation.

The billionaires who funded Trump’s campaign will pretty much shape America’s economic agenda. The unions will have a smaller voice. Corporations will be bigger and richer.

The changes in US foreign policy will be more dramatic and more immediate. Ukraine will likely be abandoned and Putin will triumph.

Trump and Netanyahu are soulmates. There will be no check on Israel’s propensity to vigorously wage war on all those who threaten her. During the campaign, Trump encouraged Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Netanyahu could still do that.

Under Trump, US policy will be more overtly hostile to Chinese commerce. Trump did threaten to impose stiff tariffs on Chinese exports. One analyst estimates that, with Trump back in the White House, China’s GDP growth will be set back by as much as two percentage points.

On the other hand, Trump and his gang are unilateralists. They have less appreciation for the value of investing in alliances. A Trump administration, for instance, may be less sympathetic towards the Philippine effort to build alliances to counter Chinese bullying. Trump does not think long-term.

During Trump’s first term, he thought about dissolving NATO. The second time around, he could be more insistent. There is panic in the European capitals.

With less money to invest in modernizing America’s military, a second Trump administration will be doubly hesitant to get involved in conflicts abroad that might break out. Supplying Ukraine with planes, tanks and ammunition demonstrated how easily depleted US defense stockpiles could be.

The hot wars going on revealed the technological deficiency of existing US weapons systems. The much-touted Abrams battle tank had less than dramatic effects than expected on the Ukrainian frontlines.

Forget about US development aid. Trump is known for tightfistedness. He will not be enthusiastic about sending money to developing nations – especially those not immediately useful for US foreign policy.