The fans of Donald Trump, of course, will not agree. However, historian Allan Lichtman’s prediction for the 2024 American presidential polls has been published by many credible news networks, including Newsweek and USA Today.
Lichtman established his Lichtman Theory based on some 120 presidential polls in the USA in 1981. Since then, he has accurately predicted the winners of nine out of 10 last US presidential polls – missing out only in the 2000 polls when George W, Bush edged out Al Gore – in a contested bout that was resolved by the Supreme Court.
That means Lichtman had accurately predicted the wins of Ronald Reagan (1981-1989), George W.H. Bush (1989-1993), Bill Clinton (1993-2001), George W.H. Bush (2005-2009), Barrack Obama (2009-2017), Donald Trump (2017-2021) and Joe Biden (2021-2025). Total of nine elections and reelections.
His Theory is based on 13 key points which are benchmarked against the incumbent party. These include the economy, foreign policy, domestic social unrest, inflation and the presence of strong third-party candidates.
If the incumbent (Harris-Democrat) fails in six or more of the 13 keys they will lose; if five keys or less, they will win. Lichtman predicts Democrats will fail in only five keys now, including foreign policy, which makes him predict that Harris will beat Trump this year in the Nov. 5 polls.
Popular vote vs electoral college
The latest BBC survey showed Harris leading Trump 48-46, although this has narrowed from the end of August Harris’ head of 47-42. The latest from Reuters shows Harris also leading Trump 45-43 in the popular vote.
But, of course, everyone knows that the US president is determined by who gets the first 270 electoral votes. Right now, in the Electoral College prediction, it is still a dead-even (tie) between the vice president and the former president.
Being watched closely are about 94 key electoral votes coming from Michigan (15 EVS), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Nevada (6) and Arizona (11).
Despite Lichtman’s prophecy, the presidential race is still too close to call, based on the Electoral College race.
Latest tactics
The Trump camp, according to Vanity Fair, is now embracing important young men opinion makers and influencers like Aldin Ross and Bo Loudon to ramp up its campaign. It also has strong financial backing from billionaires like right-wing casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and Tesla founder Elon Musk. Those who contributed $1 million or more to Trump make up for $514.7 million of its campaign funds, while small donors only gave $265M.
Harris is strong with women and Latin/immigrant groups while Evangelical Christians, for various reasons, seem to back Trump.
Harris has a hard time reconciling her strong support for Israel in the Middle East and commiserating with the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and Lebanon, according to Yahoo News. Trump takes advantage of this and says Harris and Democrats will bring the globe to World War III, citing the Middle East and Ukraine problems.
It is known, however, that Russia started the problem by invading Ukraine and the new Middle East imbroglio started with the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 which killed 1,200 Israeli civilians. None was started by US foreign policy or lack of it.
China, on the other hand, dislikes a Biden Democrat who babies Taiwan like a toddler but hates Trump even more who has threatened to tax all Chinese goods to the US by 200 percent. It wants a US president that will advance the economic interests of both the US and China – China is, at its core, a business entity.
Everyone wants clean, honest elections that will produce a president that reflects the democratic choice of the American people. Trump, not in so many words, had threatened mayhem if he loses in the coming November polls, reminiscent of the Jan. 6, 2021 mayhem in the Capitol that led the charging criminally by the Fed of some 11,400 participants.
The civil unrest that could potentially follow is a grave concern for both Americans and the world.
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Bingo Dejaresco III, a former banker, is a financial consultant and media practitioner.