Pinoys excited for US polls

The US elections on November 5 is going to be a very tight race. It is anybody's ball game. I want Democrats to win with Kamala Harris as my personal choice but one week before the polls, the two candidates are fighting tooth and nail. This race is even tighter than the historic Trump-Clinton polls in 2016 and the even more hotly-contested presidential election in 2000 between George Bush and Al Gore.

One week before the US elections this year, the average of all predictions is that Trump is slightly favored at 51% over Kamala Harris' 49%. But another set shows Harris at 48.1% over Trump's 46.3%. We are tracking the American pollsters and find that TIPP Insights predicts that Harris shall win 49% over Trump's 47. YouGov's forecast is 49% for Harris and only 46 for Trump. The Redfield and Wilton Strategies has it the other way with Harris 45% to Trump's 47. Ipsos Reuters' forecast gives Harris 47% and Trump at 45. And so, based on margins of errors, these numbers are almost equivalent to a tie.

The Suffolk University's USA Today prediction is that Harris will get 45% while Trump will have 44. Morning Consult gives Harris 50% and Trump only 45. Quantum Insights gives both Harris and Trump 49% each. This election is going to depend much on the swing states like Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes, Wisconsin 10, Michigan 15, North Carolina 16, Georgia 16, Nevada 6, and Arizona 11. There will be tight races in Texas, Florida, and Ohio but they are going to vote for Trump. In the same way, New Mexico, Virginia and Minnesota will have tight races but they shall remain Democrat.

For sure, Harris is going to bag the 54 electoral votes of California, the 28 of New York, the 19 of Illinois, 14 of New Jersey, 13 of Virginia,12 of Washington, 11 of Massachusetts, 10 of Maryland, 10 of Colorado, eight of Oregon, seven of Connecticut, five of New Mexico, four of Rhode Island, four of Hawaii, three of Delaware, three of the District of Columbia, one out of two in Maine, and one out of four in Nebraska. These are the traditional blue states. Incidentally the Fil-ams or former Filipino citizens who have been granted American citizenship are mostly in California, New York, New Jersey, and Hawaii. Sixty-five percent of polled Fil-am voters are leaning to Kamala Harris and the Democrats' candidates.

On the other hand, Donald Trump is predicted to win in traditionally red states like Texas with 40 electoral votes, Florida with 30, Ohio with 17, Indiana and Tennessee with 11 each, Missouri with 10, South Carolina and Alabama with nine each, Kentucky and Louisiana with eight each, Oklahoma with seven, Utah, Mississippi and Arkansas, with six each, Idaho and Montana with four each, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota and Alaska with three each. Trump will also win in one out of two in Maine and three out of four in Nebraska. That is why the coming election is really going to be decided on the outcome of the swing states, which appear to be leaning to Kamala Harris but with the thinnest of margins.

The latest polls show that the contest is even in three major swing states, namely Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Harris is ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan but Trump is still leading in Georgia. In the Senate race, the Democratic candidate is leading in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania but the Republicans lead in Texas, and Nevada. On the national polling question of which party the voters want to control Congress, the Democrats are favored by a comfortable margin. On the issue of the economy, Trump is preferred by the Americans. But on the issue of freedom and of choice, Harris is a runaway winner.

But the wheels are still turning and anything and everything can happen on November 5. One thing is sure though. If Harris will lose, she is going to concede immediately. If Trump does not win, there shall be another riot in the Capitol.