All eyes on the US elections

With just a little over two weeks left before the Nov. 5 presidential elections in the United States, never in the history of the world has so much attention been focused on this election. Poll results show the race to be so tight that it could be anybody’s game, with the winning margins projected to be “razor-thin.”

Unlike other countries where the candidate who wins the popular vote is declared the winner, the United States has a unique system called the Electoral College where a state is allocated electoral votes based on the number of their congressional representatives and two more from the senators. The winner will need 270 Electoral College votes out of the total 538, and with this system, it’s possible for a candidate to win the popular number of votes nationally but still lose the election.

Swing states or battleground states are those where results have not been predictable for each election cycle, with the support for candidates split rather evenly. This year, the battleground states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada – which is why both the Trump and Harris camps are doubling down on their campaign activities to shore up support in these critical states and convince undecided voters across race, age and gender lines.

However, a report from the Pew Research Center on the results of a survey conducted from Aug. 26 to Sept. 2 shows that majority of Americans “continue to favor moving away from Electoral College,” with 63 percent indicating they would “prefer to see the winner of the presidential election be the person who wins the most votes nationally,” while 35 percent favored retaining the Electoral College system.

I also came across an interesting report published at the website of National Public Radio titled, “In an election race this close, Asian American voters have become a force” about members of the Asian American and Pacific Islanders (AAPI) community – which includes Filipino-Americans – emerging as the “fastest-growing voting group” in the United States.

In Pennsylvania for example, “the number of eligible voters from this demographic group grew by a whopping 55 percent between 2010 and 2020,” the report said, explaining that while their number may be just a narrow slice of eligible voters, the AAPI vote can turn the tide and help determine who will win in a critical state like Pennsylvania.

According to AAPI data, there are “over 2.14 million Filipino-American adults eligible to vote” and that “when considering battleground states, Filipino-Americans are one of the three largest groups of eligible AAPI voters” at 15 percent. With more Filipino-Americans getting involved and increasing their participation in US politics, they can become a potent force in the elections and undoubtedly play a major role in strengthening the relationship between the Philippines and the United States.

Without a doubt, every diplomat in Washington, DC is closely monitoring the developments and carefully watching the twists and turns in the campaign. In fact, all eyes will practically be riveted on America on election day, knowing fully well that the outcome will have tremendous global impact in most every aspect, particularly in terms of the foreign policy direction that the US under a new administration will take.

As noted by Dr. Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea chair of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in his foreword to a major new report titled “The Global Impact of the 2024 US Presidential Election,” the audience is global, with the choices of Americans having “ramifications for the world.”

Calling it “an election of global consequence,” Dr. Cha says the next US president will, “upon entering office, contend with not only two wars in Europe and the Middle East, but also growing cooperation among autocratic powers as a disruptive force in the global order,” highlighting that “China’s assertiveness and coalitions of autocratic leaders are putting unprecedented stress on the rules-based international order.”

Not surprisingly, Europe seems to be slightly on edge, considering that the war in Ukraine continues to rage. As International Crisis Group president Dr. Comfort Ero has put it, it’s a “high-stakes election for NATO and Ukraine,” noting that “in all the biggest conflicts in and around Europe, the US is playing a central role. It is a critical supplier of military aid to Ukraine as Kyiv fights to fend off Russian aggression. It has taken the lead in attempting to end the Gaza war and contain spillover elsewhere in the Middle East. Washington has also been out front seeking a settlement to the civil war in Sudan.”

It is, therefore, quite “jarring” for many European leaders to think about “the erosion of a partnership on which the EU relies to manage the crises that plague its neighborhood,” Dr. Ero says.

From what we are told, the foreign policies of the two candidates may differ on Europe, but when it comes to the Indo-Pacific region, the policies would more or less be the same regardless of who the next occupant of the White House will be.

During my discussion with the board, advisory council and members of Asia Society Northern California, I conveyed that majority of Filipinos strongly support the current trajectory of our relationship with the United States. With strong bipartisan support for the Philippines by members of the US Congress, I am confident that whichever way the US elections will go, our alliance, friendship and partnership will remain strong, anchored on the Mutual Defense Treaty – which remains a tool for peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.

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