Under the cloak of night of Oct. 2, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked Israel with a barrage of 180 ballistic missiles supposedly targeted at military installations. All major Israeli cities were hit, from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv, from Jaffa to Nahariya. It was Tehran’s most aggressive attack on its arch enemy.
Israel and its top ally, the United States, worked together to shoot down most of the 180 projectiles, just as it did when Iran fired missiles at Israel last April 13. Israel’s Iron Dome swung into action, minimizing the damage.
According to the Israeli army, only a “few” ground hits were recorded in central and southern parts of the country as most missiles were intercepted. Tehran’s attack proved inferior to Israel’s defenses.
Still, Tehran’s actions should worry us all. See, Iran’s attack on Israel is an act of provocation. It ignored warnings from the international community not to get directly involved in the war. By doing so, Iran effectively expanded and escalated the war, endangering the stability of the entire Middle East. Its effect will be felt across the globe through supply chain disruptions and human displacements. To this, more economic sanctions are justified on Iran.
Do not forget, Iran was not even a direct actor in this conflict. Israel’s war is with Hamas, not Iran. Although Hamas is a known proxy of Iran, Israel purposely avoided a direct attack on Iran so as to avert an all-out war in the Middle East. Keeping the war confined to Hamas kept the conflict local. This is all water under the bridge now.
Iran’s government, led by its supreme leader Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, could not accept the fact that Israel was winning the war against Hamas. To defuse Israel’s forces, Ali Khamenei allowed Hezbollah to graduate from waging parallel attacks on Israel (in a show of solidarity with Hamas) to engaging in an all-out war.
So up until the Oct. 2 attacks, Israel was fighting two wars – with Hezbollah where fighting is concentrated in the southern part of Lebanon and with Hamas where fighting is confined in Gaza. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are not state actors. They are terrorist groups that do not conform to the rules of the Geneva Convention. This makes them barbaric in battle, given the absence of accountability. Despite this, Israel is winning in both fronts. Hamas is nearly quashed while more than 50 percent of Hezbollah’s artilleries is said to have been neutralized.
Last July 31, Hamas’ political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Tehran. Haniyeh was in the Iranian capital to attend the inauguration of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iran blamed Israel for the assassination while squirming in embarrassment for having its invitee assassinated in its guest house.
On Sept. 27, Israel eliminated Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader of 32 years and architect of terror activities. It was another painful embarrassment for Iran.
The elimination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, coupled by the imminent defeat of its terrorist groups, are the reasons why Ali Khamenei decided get directly involved in the war. Plus, it began to appear as if Iran was simply sitting on the fence and not performing its leadership role in challenging Israel.
For those unaware, Ali Khamenei built his country’s political system around a single purpose – the destruction of Israel and the United States. It is his “reason to be” and the reason why his sweeping powers are tolerated. Ali Khamenei needed to be seen as proactive, especially since a large swath of the Iranian population already question his legitimacy, his rigid laws and his ideals of hate and violence.
Now that Iran has drawn first blood, a massive war looms.
Israel’s wrath and Iran’s threat
President Benjamin Netanyahu perfectly explained his position in his address following the attack. “Iran has made a big mistake. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. We will keep to the rule we have determined – whoever attacks us, we attack them.”
In short, Israel will retaliate as it is duty-bound to protect its people. Israel is fighting for its life and right to exist.
War strategists agree that Israel should first neutralize Iran’s eight nuclear sites. It is simply too dangerous to have rage-consumed Ali Khamenei have nuclear weapons at his disposal.
Another strategic target is Iran’s 10 oil refineries and 98 oil fields to cripple the Iranian economy. To this, Iran warned that if their refineries are attacked, it will bomb the oil refineries of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain and Azerbaijan to induce a global oil crisis. Iran is effectively holding the world hostage for a war it started.
The silver lining
There could be a silver lining here. The fact that Iran has drawn first blood gives Israel (and by extension, the United States) the justification to topple Iran’s oppressive leadership.
In fact, President Netanyahu hinted at this in a public address. Addressing the Iranian people, President Netanyahu said that the Iranian leaders do not care about its people’s future. Rather, they are consumed with hate against Israel and the US. When Iran is finally free, peace can reign between two great civilizations, the Jews and the Persians. It can happen soon.
I believe this statement reveals President Netanyahu’s true intentions. He plans to use this war not only to quash the terrorist groups that oppress and destabilize the people in the Gulf, but also to eliminate the very regime that created them. By doing so, the Iranian people will be free from oppression, peace can reign in the Middle East and Israel can exist in peace.
Let us hope that this war ends soon and carries minimal casualties.
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Email: andrew_rs6@yahoo.com. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan