Tension in the Middle East

I spent many sleepless nights watching the late evening news on the escalating tension in the Middle East.

Last Tuesday night, Oct. 1, Iran launched almost 200 ballistic missiles towards Israel. This was Iran’s second attack on Israel, after the one in April where the former launched about 300 missiles on the latter. The April attack on Israel, the first time that Iran had fired directly into Israeli territory, was in retaliation for an Israeli missile attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhayu, quoting media reports, called Tehran’s latest action “a major mistake” and said “It will pay.”

Iran’s barrage of missiles on Israel was in response to Israeli assassination of top Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders.

Why is the escalating tension important to us living in the Philippines? I will give you four reasons.

First reason, it has been estimated that there are two to three million overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in the Middle East. Latest data from the Department of Foreign Affairs showed that there are about 30,000 Filipinos in Israel and 2,000 Filipinos in Iran. Hence, any serious outbreak of war could affect the livelihood of millions living in the Middle East. At present, the current government does not offer any alternative jobs for those workers who would be displaced and would be forced to return home.

Connected with these displacements would be lower workers’ remittances, which in turn would affect consumption expenditure of families of workers in the Philippines. This would translate to lower economic growth.

Second reason, the Philippines, as we all know, is a net oil importer, and is therefore vulnerable to global oil spikes. According to a Reuters report, Iran, which produces about three million barrels of oil per day, is the third largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members. It is therefore expected that with the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, there would be higher oil prices, which would have effects on inflation.

As we all know, the Marcos administration has a dismal record in controlling inflation. Controlling the spiraling prices of basic commodities is the top concern of Filipinos since June 2023 and three in four Filipinos are dissatisfied with how the Marcos administration addressed inflation, according to Pulse Asia.

Publicus Asia corroborated this in its 2024 Pahayag Third Quarter survey, conducted Sept. 15 to 19, when it mentioned inflation as the most pressing national issue that is affecting the overall performance of the President.

I have long been asking government to find alternative fuel. In fact, during my stint as presidential spokesperson, I even announced that the Department of Energy had been given the green light to import cheaper diesel fuel from Russia to mitigate back then the impact of oil price hikes in the world market. What happened? Abandoned because of our pro-American policy?

In addition, why is there no initiative on the part of the current government to seriously promote the use electric vehicles (EVs) to lessen our dependence on gas? In China, the number of new electric car registrations reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022, according to the Global EV Outlook 2024 by the International Energy Agency.

Indonesia is likewise pushing for the adoption of EV, aiming for two million EV passenger cars and 13 million electric motorcycles by 2030. It launched its first EV battery plant in the West Javan town of Karawang last July – the biggest in Southeast Asia. We can follow the Indonesian example considering the Philippines, like our close neighbor, is rich in nickel – an important component in producing EV battery.   Incidentally, I was one of the authors of Republic Act 10963, or the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) Law, implemented in 2018, which exempted EVs from excise tax during my stint as a party-list representative in the 17th Congress.

Third reason, the escalating tension in the Middle East is a threat to our national security. We did not learn from the lessons of Marawi where extremist groups destroyed the peace in Marawi when we became the first country in Southeast Asia, under the Marcos administration, to welcome people fleeing Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

I have made my position clear on the matter, articulating my stance that the Philippines’ agreement with the United States to allow Afghan nationals to transit to the Philippines is a national security concern. Who knows if a foreign terrorist posing as a former US employee in Afghanistan could have slipped into the country?  In the spirit of transparency, PBBM should have disclosed the terms of his agreement with the Americans in the interest of Filipino public.  Sadly, silence was golden and he was mum on the issue.

If you would recall, Vice President Inday Sara Duterte gave her vehement objection – her first policy difference with PBBM – to make the Philippines a halfway house for 50,000 Afghans fleeing the Taliban regime in an April 20 letter to the Anti-Terrorism Council.   We all know what happened next. VP Sara became a subject of a vicious hate campaign.

Fourth reason, the United States could not afford to have a war with China since it is busy with Ukraine and the Middle East. In fact, the United States was nowhere to help when the Philippines lost Escoda (Sabina) Shoal to China a few weeks ago.

The lessons we can learn from the tension in the Middle East is the importance of leadership.  We need decisive, compassionate and results-driven leadership that can inspire and call people to action.

Unfortunately, what we have at the moment is an ayuda-and-free Duran Duran concert administration, reminiscent of the bread-and-circus reign of ancient Rome.