Rama still the strongest mayoralty bet

The facts on the ground, the pulse among the grassroots and the common consensus among non-partisan political observers are unanimous that suspended mayor Michael L. Rama, despite or even because of his preventive suspension, remains the strongest candidate for mayor in 2025. The latest BARUG “panagtigum" compared to the ragtag "Kusug" assembly has proven the peoples' conclusion "Ang BARUG gihapon ang adunay kusug."

Do not take my words on this. I am too identified as a Rama partisan. So, do your own determination on what are really happening in the grassroots. Do your own assessment of the realities on the ground. I have eight arguments to support my hypothesis: First, the most important pillars of the Rama supporters remain intact. The most popular councilors have chosen to stick with him through thick and thin, including acting Vice Mayor Dondon Hontiveros, Atty. Joy Pesquera, Philip Zafra, Noel Wenceslao, and Francis Esparis. KB Federation president Rhea Jakosalem and ABC president Franklin Ong are also with Mike. Second, the split from Vice Mayor Raymond Garcia has even added more Rama supporters as some anti-Garcia leaders have joined the Rama bandwagon.

Third, and this is very crucial, Mike Rama has more barangays remaining loyal to Barug and to his leadership. All his probable opponents, including acting Mayor Garcia, do not have the strong and formidable force that supports the suspended mayor. Most of the barangay captains and their ward leaders are fully committed to making Rama win again. They are not merely supporting Mike, they are going to work very hard to campaign and make him win. The support of ABC president Franklin Ong makes a lot of difference. No other probable opponents have this cadre of loyal supporters. The strength of Mike is founded solidly in the barangays. His victory and defeat will depend principally on the support of the barangay leaders.

Fourth, the latest political realignments in the national political arena has a direct impact on the local politics in Cebu. There are many anti-Marcos voters who are just being silent and unassuming. But Mike Rama, being aligned with PDP-Laban as its vice president for the Visayas, has gained for Mike two big blocks of voters: the silent but considerably big group of anti-Marcos Cebuanos, and the bigger block of pro-Duterte adherents. Fifth, the preventive suspension of Mayor Mike has made him a martyr in the eyes of many people. He has not been accused of corruption, much less of plunder, unlike many high profile trapos that we know. The reason for his suspension, to my mind, is too flimsy, and the six-month suspension is a cruel and unusual penalty.

Sixth, to the eyes and minds of many people, Mayor Mike is being penalized even when he has not been heard yet. This predicament has attracted immense sympathy and has fueled the strong belief that this government is persecuting those identified with former president Rodrigo Duterte. The Cebuanos do love the underdogs. The Cebuano voters are most likely to show Malacañang that people are not happy with what the administration is doing against political enemies. Seventh, on the other hand, the suspension of Mayor Mike has given him enough time and space to rebuild and strengthen his organization down to the precinct levels. The vice mayor who is running against Mike has been made too busy with the thousand and one tasks laid on the shoulders of the mayor.

Eighth, because Mayor Mike has been unceremoniously removed albeit temporarily, from the seat of power in City Hall, he cannot be blamed for the hundreds of problems facing the mayor's office, from garbage to traffic, to floods and to many headaches, from the most trivial to the most strategic. Mayor Mike is given so much time to campaign and to plan all his strategies and techniques in getting back his seat which was taken away peremptorily and without due process. When God closed City Hall’s doors to him, many windows of opportunities have been opened to him and to his loyal followers.

Mayor Mike is a lucky man. The Lord seems to love him more than his political rivals.