If Tommy “O” decides to run for mayor

In the 2022 Presidential Elections, here in Cebu City, Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos Jr., obtained 325,000 votes. This number is about one half of the total number of 700,000 city registered electorates. Assuming that this was a product of honest election (which I truly doubt) and we compare this result to the reported total votes cast for Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo which was only150,000, we can conclude that Cebu City is a bailiwick of President Marcos Jr. According to common political reasoning, whoever may be supported by the president this coming 2025 elections enjoys an upper hand. There is rumor spread around that the presidential bet is the Acting Mayor Raymond Garcia and if that is true, then Garcia is presumably the man to beat.

In the same 2022 election, Sara Duterte-Carpio got 360,000 votes from Cebu City electors to help her become our vice president and of course, this was even bigger than what Marcos Jr. obtained. Mathematically speaking. Duterte-Carpio received more than half of the ballots cast by the city residents. So we can just also assume that if that 2022 election was honest, we canpresume the vice president to have a huge following in the city such that the candidate for city mayor in 2025 that she may support can also benefit from her popularity. Since Michael Rama is the acknowledged remaining political ally of former President Rodrigo Duterte here in Cebu City, the Dutertes are expected to back Rama up.On any graphics therefore and looking at the scene from the standpoint of support from national leadership (and probable funding), prospective, meaning 2025 rival candidates for mayor Rama and Garcia are on equal footing. Let us not forget that they ran as a team in 2022.

Councilor Nestor Archival is the third candidate for city mayor. This was announced by former Mayor Tomas R. Osmeña although I still personally harbor the belief that it will be Osmeña who will eventually file a certificate of candidacy for mayor. I expect this event to happen especially if his performance in his congressional appearance tomorrow will turn out to be a smashingsuccess to make a political comeback compelling. In short, the contest for city mayorship will be a three-cornered fight.

There is one factor advantageous to Tommy. National political parties other than the Marcos and Duterte camps (which are no longer friendly of each other) will attempt to regain its foothold here. Is Cebu City still considered an opposition country? The Liberal Party is most likely to succeed in reconnecting its alliance with Osmeña. After all,this was the party of Sergio “Serging” Osmeña Jr., Tommy’s father when he ran for president in 1969 against Apo Ferdie. Judging that from the results of the 2022 presidential elections, when the Liberal Party coddled Robredo, it may be presumed that the voters of Robredo are expected to throw their support to Osmeña. The resulting effect of support from national parties will make the Garcia-Osmeña-Rama contest unpredictable. That is if Tommy will leap frog to become mayoral candidate.

What about Mr. Yogi Ruiz?There is rumor that Yogi is the bet of First Lady Liza Marcos. His candidacy though is presently shrouded in mystery. If he proceeds with his mayoral plans, he can affect Mayor Garcia’s Malacañang support. There are reports though that he may slide down to become Rama’s candidacy.

The Garcia-Osmeña-Rama contest will be close. Their lineups for councilor will be a huge factor. Rama’s group will romp off the south district if Councilor Hontiveros leads Mike’s southern councilorial front. Garcia and Osmeña on the other hand will sharenumbers of winning councilors in the north district. When they file their certificates of candidacy two weeks from now, we can have a more vividly interesting picture of Cebu City politics. Abangan!