Next week, those intending to seek elective office will have to file their certificates of candidacies.
The technical requirements for printing ballots tailor-made for each locality necessitates the early filing period. In the weeks following, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) will pore through the filings and disqualify those who do not meet the requirements.
The substantial distance between the deadline for filing candidacies and the day of voting makes for a protracted campaign period. For much of that period, candidates may splurge on political advertising without the formal limitations. In our funny jurisprudence, only campaign expenses incurred during the formal campaign period need to be declared in the statement of contributions and expenses all candidates must file after the electoral period.
The early deadline for filing candidacies forces aspirants and political parties to “show their hand” much earlier than they might prefer. At the national level, the party coalitions are forced to finalize their list of senatorial candidates. That favors the incumbents and disfavors those who still need to establish sufficient name-recall.
In the localities, where politics tend to be bi-factional, power brokers need to win accreditation with the larger political parties – at the very least for purposes of filing for certificates of candidacy. This favors the larger coalitions and disadvantages the smaller party formations.
To achieve greater flexibility in this regard, several regional and local parties have been formed. Candidates may register under the name of the local party. The local party then negotiates affiliation with the larger national coalitions further down the road.
We know that most of the so-called “party-list” groups are controlled by local power brokers. They provide the means for local political lords to expand their influence and increase the size of their “machinery.”
Over the years, our politicians have realized that it is more economical to garner the required number of votes to win party-list representation in the House of Representatives by concentrating campaign resources in a locality rather than spreading them out nationally. This is the reason why ideological party-list groups have lost voter support to localized party-list groups, whatever advocacy they may claim. This is also the reason we have seen the rise of ethnolinguistic party lists such as Ako Bikol and An Waray.
Ironically, the party-list system has evolved in a way that favors the dominant political clans and the dynasts. What was supposed to be a feature of representation intended to include more voices in Congress has become an adjunct of dynastic politics. The party-list system magnifies the influence of local political lords.
In a word, the party-list system has become the oligarchy’s pet monster. It magnifies the power of the old political clans.
The long de facto campaign period favors the ruling coalition. It has brought nearly all the major parties under its wing through various forms of enticement. It also enjoys the support of most local officials who depend on correct political alignment to win public funds for their constituents.
In the 2019 midterm elections, the ruling coalition completely dominated all challengers. Most visibly, the ruling coalition zeroed the main “Otso Diretso” opposition group in the race for seats in the Senate.
The long campaign period likewise benefits the incumbents. Having a seat in either the House or Senate allows more television face time. This is one of the reasons we have so many public hearings going on where legislators clumsily role play as prosecutors.
The breakup of the “UniTeam” coalition adds a unique feature to the electoral terrain. The administration’s supermajority in Congress and overwhelming presence of its partisans among local elective posts will likely be challenged by a newly forming coalition around Vice President Sara Duterte.
Although there is little evidence the Vice President has been preparing a nationwide coalition, her group is likely to benefit from the entry of local politicians who, given the bi-factional nature municipal and provincial contests, fail to be accredited with the pro-administration coalition. She would also harvest senatorial aspirants who fail to be included in the administration ticket.
From this, she should be able to weave an “opposition” formation. This is important if she has any plans to seek the presidency in 2028.
Because Sara will likely play the role of main challenger in the midterms, the Liberal Party has been unable to form a complete Senate slate. The party’s better known personalities have chosen to seek local positions or contend for party-list representation.
The Liberal Party’s predicament is compounded by the decision of the leftist Makabayan bloc to field a full Senate slate. A set of Makabayan personalities, leaders of their component mass organizations, has been announced. The leftwing slate of candidacies will be merely token, however, given how their party-list groups have suffered from eroding voter support the past few elections.
Further compounding the Liberal Party’s predicament is the decision of trade union leaders to field a separate ticket. This includes personalities from the so-called “rejectionist” wing of the national democratic stream. An informal alliance between the Liberal Party, the labor bloc and party-list groups such as Akbayan should not be discounted – not that it matters much.
The period for filing of candidacies should tell us the extent of Sara’s relevance in the electoral alignments. She will likely have some of the pro-Duterte senators seeking reelection against the odds.
Odd alliances could still be cut. But the window of opportunity is closing fast.