CCP is not China

One difficulty I also have when I discuss the aggressive global policies of China is that I always have to explain that one must distinguish between China and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). For example, the claims that the entire South China Sea belongs to China became a global problem only when Xi Jinping took over the Chinese Communist Party.

This is similar to saying that Trump is the United States of America or that Duterte is the Republic of the Philippines. The United States under a Trump presidency would be so different than if it were under Kamala Harris. It would also be very easy to imagine a Philippines under a Leni Robredo than under a Rodrigo Duterte.

To understand where China could be headed, observers must pay attention to the future direction of its Communist Party. China’s leaders today have explicitly presented their authoritarian system of governance as an end in and of itself, and not just a stepping stone to a liberal democratic state. There was a time before Xi when Chinese leaders even look at democracies such as Singapore and Hong Kong as potential models. This is no longer the case.

The two-system model of China and Hong Kong has been brutally crushed under Xi Jinping. It is clear that China’s leaders do not just want to consolidate their rule at home. Their ambitions of power have become global.

In the decades of the ‘60s and ‘70s, China was not an active participant of the Cold War, even under Mao Zedong. In fact, during that era, China tried to position itself globally as the leader of the Third World, in contrast to a capitalist West and a Stalinist Soviet Union.

China’s foreign policy is anchored on two main objectives: the first is creating a world where China can assume its role as a superpower on an equal status or even higher than the United States of America. The second objective is to promote to the world that the Chinese model of authoritarianism is the ideal model for all countries in the world.

China’s growing range of economic and diplomatic interests, however, is beginning to increasingly demand an expanded global security presence. Aside from the South China Sea, there is an increasing presence in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. I believe that when the day comes, there will be an active Chinese military and naval presence in these two oceans, the countries neighboring these two oceans will react very negatively and even in a hostile manner.

China’s handling of the South China Sea territorial issues shows that China has adopted a highly confrontational style of diplomacy. This style will complicate China’s quest to project its authoritarian model overseas.

I want to repeat at this stage that when I say China, I really mean the Chinese Communist Party. I still remember the time when Deng Xiaoping gave a speech at the United Nations when he promised the world that China would never become an imperialist country.

This of course had changed when Xi Jinping took over the CCP. This increasing belligerence of the CCP foreign policy since the beginning of 2020 does not bode well for the world. But it is not impossible to imagine a less antagonistic version of the CCP model of authoritarianism.

One must remember that the authoritarianism of China before 2012 actually included a very strong private business sector and a much less aggressive foreign policy. There may not be a chance that the CCP will turn into a liberal democratic party but it is still possible that we can see a CCP that will return to the days of Deng Xiaoping.

In the meantime, the world must confront a CCP that is increasingly dictated by Xi Jinping thought. The biggest point of potential conflict in the world today is a Chinese assault on Taiwan. This is a threat that is increasingly becoming possible under the present CCP rule.

A Chinese assault on Taiwan can shift the balance of power in Asia. There are two possible scenarios. The first is if China were to take Taiwan swiftly and easily, then China will be free to pursue other military objectives such as the Philippines. But if China were to find itself bogged down in a prolonged invasion or occupation of Taiwan, this forced attempt at unification will become a significant burden on their power. Taiwan has, of course, been preparing for this potential invasion.

If the United States decides to defend Taiwan, China’s attempt at an invasion would probably fail. If a potential invasion of Taiwan succeeds, the world must expect a consolidation of China’s rule of the South China Sea, which includes an invasion of the Philippines. If the invasion of Taiwan fails, the most probable scenario would be a change in the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and a potential return of a CCP much less aggressive than the present one.

I have to repeat once more that China is not an enemy. The aggressive foreign policy is the result of a CCP under Xi Jinping.