Momentous

The energy is high. The optimism is contagious. This is how a momentous political wave begins rolling.

The Democratic National Convention formally nominated Kamala Harris for the presidency. To the joyous crowd that gathered there, she might as well have been declared winner of a most historic electoral contest.

The four-day convention was impeccably produced. The spectacle went through a long list of speakers and musicians seamlessly. The messaging was tightly focused.

In the assessment of political veterans, this is the best organized convention ever. This is surprising, considering the Democratic Party changed its presidential candidate only four weeks ago.

Political conventions are necessarily political theater writ large. This one was writ really large. Attesting to this, the Democratic National Convention drew a television audience nearly twice as large as the one drawn by the Republican National Convention last month.

We will have to wait a week or so before the polls tell us how much of a bounce this spectacle produces for candidate Harris. Having invested the last four mornings monitoring this event on television, I feel that post-convention bounce will be pretty substantial. It will turn the tide.

A focus group of eight undecided voters convened by CNN could be a telling indicator. As the convention closed, six of them had decided to vote for Harris. One chose Trump while another remained undecided.

The Republican National Convention last month produced no bounce at all in Donald Trump’s numbers. This despite the drama of an assassination attempt that some suspect to have been staged.

Joe Biden stole whatever bounce might benefit Trump. Days after the close of the Republican gathering, and Trump’s unfortunate choice of a colorless running mate, Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race. That changed the narrative of this contest completely.

After Biden withdrew, it is now Trump who has to prove he is not too old for the high office he seeks. It is for Trump to prove he has a better future to weave for America. It is for Trump to prove he can rise beyond his own pettiness and lead his great country to a better future.

Days and weeks after Biden withdrew, Trump was still attacking the sitting president. He took long to figure out a way to characterize Kamala Harris, resorting to his usual race- and gender-baiting. All the insults he threw out failed to stick. He was flailing.

The polls tacked Trump’s predicament accurately. His numbers were declining. Kamala’s were surging. The momentum was shifting dramatically.

For Trump the racist and misogynist, losing to Kamala has to be his worst nightmare.

She was a woman of color who represented the exact opposite of Trump’s values. She and her running mate Tim Walz genuinely rose from the middle class and lived lives that more closely resemble that of ordinary Americans.

The Democratic Convention reflected the true diversity of American society. It even had prominent Republicans who crossed the aisle to support Harris. This contrasted sharply with the predominantly White and male Republican constituency.

Harris’ agenda featured a commitment to reproductive health and choice, improved Medicare and social security, and widening access to housing. Her own career was one dedicated to achieving social justice.

The importance of the Nov. 5 vote cannot be overstated. Trump and his ilk, supported by White nationalism and the Christian Right, want to roll back reproductive choice and a more humane immigration policy. If Trump wins, this will mean basically a reversion to the past. That past features institutionalized inequality for races and genders.

For its part, the Harris campaign rejects returning to the past. Kamala promises a better future for all Americans and a more caring government. If she is elected president, we can expect expansion of reproductive rights, improved social security and a stronger pro-environment stance.

The presidential contest has shaped up into a decisive battle between those who wish to conserve more traditional values and those who seek more expansive personal freedoms. This is, in its fullest sense, a watershed moment for American society.

The rapidly changing demographics of American society will define the outcome of this election more decisively than previous elections. Minorities, especially Blacks and Hispanics, will cast decisive votes. Younger voters are leaning Democrat more heavily than before.

Donald Trump is beleaguered. His base of White nationalists and the religious Right is quickly diminishing. Suburban voters, especially women, will be decisive in the next elections.

Regardless of the outcome of next November’s vote, the culture wars will likely continue. Should Trump lose, there is a large possibility he will not concede. There is a slight possibility his followers could indulge in political violence like they did after Biden was elected president.

Each day that passes presents a Trump who is increasingly unhinged. It is not beyond him to call out his militants, use intimidation and deploy every trick in the book to invalidate the results. He did all of these before.

It is always comforting to imagine that American policy changes only ever so slightly regardless who wins elections. This might not be true in the case of Trump. The policy blueprint produced by his most extreme policy advisers actually threatens to derail American democracy and lay the foundations for tyranny.

Kamala Harris’ speech at the convention signals a clear move towards centrist politics. Trump and his ilk can only combat this by moving to the extreme right.