Sea change

The world is fascinated by the dramatic shifts in the dynamics of the US presidential elections.

In the three breathtaking weeks since Joe Biden withdrew as a candidate, a new energy has descended on the campaign. In the key northern battleground states any Democratic presidential candidate needs to win, the shift in voter preference has been most dramatic. Where Donald Trump was leading just weeks ago, Kamala Harris now enjoys more than a majority of likely voters.

While Biden was rapidly losing Black voters when he was still a candidate, Kamala Harris now enjoys an 8-to1 lead in this demographic. Most dramatic, Harris now enjoys an overwhelming lead among voters under 30. The Democratic aspirant likewise enjoys a big lead in campaign contributions.

In the latest Florida poll, Harris has moved close to the margin of error in a one-on-one with Trump. Florida used to be reliably Republican. Trump won the state by 19 points the last time. Now, it has become imaginable Harris might actually win in this state.

It has also become imaginable Harris could take North and South Carolina to break the traditional Republican southern strongholds. By the number of volunteers turning up for the Harris campaign, it is possible Harris might overshadow the 2008 Obama phenomenon.

The Harris campaign is making headway among suburban white women because of the abortion issue. Hispanic voters seem to have joined the bandwagon. Harris is leading by a wide margin among independent voters. Her choice of a folksy midwestern governor further broadens her appeal to rural voters.

Within 32 hours after Biden announced his withdrawal, Harris secured enough delegates to lock up the nominations process. During that same period, she broke all records for campaign contributions. Never before have US politics seen such groups as Republicans for Harris and Haley Voters for Harris emerge as crucial swing votes.

We are seeing a sea-change in voter disposition. And the Harris campaign is only three weeks old. With less than three months to go before election day, it is undeniable she enjoys strong momentum.

Next week, when the Democratic Party holds its national convention in Chicago, Harris is expected to gain a huge post-convention surge. That will give her a nearly insurmountable lead in this contest.

Trump is very surely not taking this turn of events well. Known for his racist and misogynist disposition, there could be no worse nightmare for him than losing to a woman of color.

When the US presidential race was between two old white men, a lot of American voters were losing interest in the process. Enthusiasm for either party was low. Both candidates were widely disliked.

With Biden dropping out, we are now left with one old white man whose cognitive abilities appear to be quickly deteriorating. Donald Trump has suddenly become the oldest man on record to seek the presidency of the US. That is not an inspiring item.

In addition, about three dozen former senior officials who served in Trump’s first term, beginning from former vice president Mike Pence, have either refused to endorse Trump or now endorse Harris. That is a major demerit for the Republican candidate.

To compound what is already a flailing campaign, Trump chose as running mate a scandal-prone and uncharismatic junior senator. JD Vance, according to the polls, is now the most disliked vice presidential candidate on record.

Vance, in the weeks since he was proclaimed at the Republican Party national convention, has been bungling at every opportunity. Rather than help Trump with the women vote, he has further antagonized women voters by his unenlightened remarks.

Trump needs Vance like he needs a hole in the head. But he could not discard his running mate at this stage of the campaign. Vance is like a stone hanging from Trump’s neck as he struggles through this campaign.

The floor could still fall from under Trump’s feet, however.

Holed up in his Florida resort for over two weeks now, Trump has managed two disastrous media events. He shows unmistakable signs of dementia. Against the advice of his own men, Trump has stuck with the same campaign strategy that he had before things changed dramatically. He recycles conspiracy theories and launches into personal insults against his opponents.

This man is decaying before our eyes.

America has not seen an electoral contest like this one. Before he decided to withdraw, Biden was running an uninspiring, low-energy campaign. It was obvious he had no path to victory. That dreadful debate performance with Trump was the last straw. Democrats decided they had to quickly change horses and reinvent their campaign. The fate of candidates down the ballot depended on that.

Before Biden withdrew, the Republicans unremittingly picked on his age and scored points on that basis. Now that he has withdrawn, Republicans miss this easy target. They wish he had stayed.

The shoe is now on the other foot. Trump has become the old, worn-out candidate in this contest. He slips and lies with equal regularity. As his cognitive abilities deteriorate with such speed, he could become such an obviously invalid choice to lead his nation.

Trump has become a voice of despair, a channel for disinformation. That was evident in the Twitter “conversation” he had this week with Elon Musk. It is hard to imagine how Trump could have the energy and imagination to turn his deteriorating campaign around.