Stumbling into war

The recent aggressive move by China in the West Philippine Sea has aroused fears in some sectors of possible conflict between the Philippines and China. I find these fears completely unfounded; after all, the Philippines cannot on its own wage war against a superpower.

The possibility, however, of a conflict between the United States and China is very much possible. In fact, this could happen without the two countries intentionally and consciously declaring war on each other. There are many lessons in history of two powers suddenly finding themselves at war with each other without any premeditation.

The classic example is World War I. For those who studied this period in history, the strange thing is that Germany and Britain were actually historical allies. In the 19th century, Germany or Prussia at that time were allies with Great Britain against France. For those who have read the story of Napoleon, he was defeated in the Battle of Waterloo by the alliance of Britain and Prussia.

During the first half of the 20th century, the United States and China were actually allies. Almost all the major European powers together with Japan occupied parts of China, like Britain took over Hong Kong, Portugal occupied Macau and the other European powers followed suit. The United States, however, did not occupy any part of China.

The hostility between the United States and China began after the Second World War. This coincided with the takeover of China by the Communist Party under the leadership of Mao Zedong.

However, during the Cold War between the United States and Russia, successive American administrations believed that they had a lot to gain from facilitating China’s modernization and economic growth. Henry Kissinger at that time was the secretary of state of president Nixon. He led the way for opening the relationship between China and the United States.

It was towards the end of the 20th century when the United States and China began to view each other with greater hostility. At the same time, the two countries expanded their economic exchanges with each other.

This same period of increased suspicion coincided with the rapid rise of China as an economic superpower. For example, in 1995, China’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was around 10 percent of the US’s GDP. By 2021, China’s GDP had grown to around 75 percent of US GDP.

In 1995, the United States produced around 25 percent of the world’s manufacturing output, and China produced less than 5 percent. Last year, China produced almost 30 percent of the world’s manufacturing output, while the United States produced just 17 percent.

The United States, however, remained as the world’s leading military and naval power. However, China’s military budget doubled from the years 2000 to 2005 and then doubled again by 2009. Historically, major rising powers expand their military capabilities as their economic clout increases. It has been analyzed that Beijing’s expansion of its military and naval forces was caused by its fear that the United States had the will and the capacity to contain China’s rise if it so chooses.

Historians believe that the first World War started because of the hubris of German leaders and also the fear that Germany would be contained by the British empire.

Just like Germany adopting aggressive policies towards its neighbor, China also crashed movements for self-determination in Tibet and Xianjiang. It also undermined Hong Kong’s autonomy and has now claimed the entire South China Sea as part of its territory. In recent years, it has more frequently insisted on its right to take over Taiwan by force if necessary. The scenario that could lead to a more violent conflict based on historical precedents is dictated by three possible conditions.

The first is that China becomes convinced that the United States and western Europe would not allow China to rise under any circumstances. At the same time, Chinese leaders are unable to define to the rest of the world how their country’s rise would not remake the world.

The second condition is that both sides fear a weakening of their future positions. This view might encourage some leaders to believe that they should fight a war sooner rather than later.

The third condition is the lack of strategic communication between China and the United States.

Another source of tension is that China’s industries are growing unrestricted at the expense of everyone else. I remember years ago I wrote a column saying that if China’s economy keeps growing at the expense of other countries, the rest of the world would be forced to defend their own economies to protect the welfare and livelihood of their own people.

Today, it is clear that China’s biggest industrial problem is its massive overcapacity. This has led to the undercutting of prices by Chinese industries. As a result, countries almost everywhere are setting high tariffs on imports from China.

Leaders from both sides must learn from history. The world’s superpowers must avoid the terrible wars that reduce generations of achievements to sheer nothingness. The past can teach the leaders of today what to do and what not to do.

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