The Philippines is reacting correctly to China’s aggression

Just when there was relative calm in the West Philippine Sea following an agreement between China and the Philippines to exert greater effort to manage the maritime dispute, China has provoked Manila anew with another aggressive act. In the morning of the 8th of August, China deployed two air force jets that engaged in dangerous maneuvers that included dropping eight flares in the path of a Philippine Air Force plane which was on routine patrol over Panatag Shoal. It was reported that the Chinese jets flew dangerously close to the Philippine aircraft, putting the lives of the Filipino pilots in danger. Thankfully, there were no casualties.

China’s latest incursion was meant to intimidate Filipino forces and, by extension, the Americans. It was its way of asserting its self-conjured sovereignty over the shoal.

Panatag or Scarborough Shoal is approximately 130 kms west of Zambales, the site of the former US Subic Naval Base. Subic is now under reconstruction as a facility to provide services for US and allied ships and aircraft. China’s latest act challenges the US’s guarantee that it will oppose any initiative by Beijing to occupy, reclaim or militarize legally determined Philippine territories.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo said that the Philippines will definitely file a diplomatic protest against the communist nation. Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro said that we cannot let this incident go unanswered since doing so is akin to acquiescence. For his part, President Marcos strongly condemned the incident, describing it as unjustified, illegal and reckless.

So the next move by the Philippines will be another diplomatic protest. It will be one more added to the 405 previously filed, 130 of which were during the Marcos regime.

Incensed by the incident, many Filipinos question whether filing yet another diplomatic protest is the right move. Some have suggested fighting fire with fire.

Let me assure one and all that going the diplomatic route is the correct move for four reasons.

Reason one. Let us learn lessons from the Vietnamese experience.

As retired Brigadier General Manual Oxales (PMA class of 1960) correctly said, “A good commander will not go head-to-head in battle unless he has lethal and number superiority in weapons and arms, with the right timing and situations to his advantage and favor.”

It will be recalled that in January 1974, Chinese and Vietnamese ships fought over a Vietnamese occupied islet in the Paracels, 250 miles south of Vietnam and 300 miles from Hainan, China. The Chinese navy, superior in number and weaponry, defeated the Vietnamese and forcibly invaded the islet. This resulted in hundreds of Vietnamese soldiers losing their lives. The islets became outposts for drilling oil and natural gas by Chinese companies.

In March 1988, Chinese and Vietnamese fought again for the possession of Johnson Reef in the Spratly island group. The Chinese again defeated the Vietnamese and forcibly occupied Johnson, Fiery Cross and other reefs. Seventy Vietnamese were killed in the process.

The Vietnamese experience shows us that direct combat, even if justified, can lead to death, disaster and defeat if one is outnumbered and outgunned.

That said, the Philippines must fight China where the playing field is level. That “field” is the institutions of law.

Reason two. We must never think that the hundreds of diplomatic protests filed by the Philippines is for naught. It has hurt China more than we realize.

The Philippines is the only country in the region that counter-attacked China in two ways. First, it publicized China’s bad behavior to the world by way of actual video footages and live accounts aired on international news channels. No amount of Chinese disinformation could challenge the live footage.

These footages have caused numerous countries to condemn China’s actions. More importantly, it revealed the communist country for what it is – a pariah state that resorts to barbaric behavior to forward its hegemonic ambitions. This has pushed China further into isolation – further away from law-abiding global citizens. It counts North Korea, Russia, Iran as its close cadres.

The second counter attack is through diplomatic protests. Our diplomatic protests have contributed to a loss of confidence on the Chinese leadership. This has led to grave economic consequences. According to published economic data, more than $3 trillion left China’s shores in the last three years by way of capital flight. And the exodus of capital continues. $15 billion exited between April and June 2024 alone. China is now seen as an investment, security and geopolitical risk and investors are staying away. Capital flight is happening while China grapples with crippling debt, a severe property meltdown, record youth unemployment, decelerating exports and the blowback of its demographic crisis.

Philippine diplomatic protests have also negatively impacted China’s present and future multilateral agreements in trade, security and environmental protection. Governments avoid dealing with states that do not conform to the rule of law.

Another consequence is the escalating tension and the specter of war in the Indo-Pacific. This has resulted in an arms race among stakeholders.

Reason three. The Chinese are intentionally taunting the Philippines to elicit an aggressive reaction. An aggressive reaction is exactly what Beijing needs to justify an escalation. They need reason to cast blame on the Philippines. The Philippines is right not to fall into this Chinese trap.

Reason four. By not fighting fire with fire, the Philippines maintains its moral high ground and proves that it behaves in accordance with international laws. Manila’s actions have resulted in an increasing number of like-minded countries aligning with it for defense and economic cooperation.

So even if most Filipinos are enraged by China’s bullying, we can all be assured that the steps taken by government have been correct.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan