The Philippines: The thorn in China’s side

China was left alone to wield its economic and military might over weaker nations for years. It bullied its way to pressure others to bend to its will. Its hegemonic ambitions over the Indo-Pacific is no secret.

Taiwan is an integral part of China’s ambitions. Not only will a unification with the island nation break the US’s line of defense in the first island chain and extend China’s military reach, it will also accelerate China’s capabilities in advance semiconductor manufacturing. Subsuming Taiwan will make China an even stronger economic and militarily power whilst wiping out the last vestige of its century of humiliation.

Everything was going China’s way until President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was elected president of the Philippines in 2022. Under Marcos’ leadership, the Philippines has assumed the role of vanguard for a free and open Indo-Pacific. It is fighting on behalf of all nations who have a stake in the South China Sea. It is bravely standing up to China’s bullying as it defends its sovereign rights in the disputed waters. Marcos firmly aligned the Philippines with the axis of democracy which includes the US, Japan, Australia, South Korea and others.

The Philippines is the thorn in China’s side as it pursues its hegemonic ambitions in its typical barbaric style. Here are the six ways in which the Philippine foils the Chinese.

One. In February 2023, Marcos expanded the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States. EDCA’s expansion granted the US access to nine military bases in strategic areas of the Philippine archipelago.

This negates China’s geographical advantage over the US if and when armed conflict erupts over Taiwan. Without Philippine base access, the US could only deploy air and sea vessels from faraway Hawaii, Guam or Okinawa. Now it can do so with a moment’s notice. The Philippine Naval Camp Osias in Cagayan is only 585 kilometers from Taiwan. Camp De la Cruz in Isabela and the La-Lo airport are less than 750 kilometers away.

Access to Philippine bases give America logistical capabilities for storage, re-supply and maintenance operations of its war assets. They effectively serve as a perpetual functioning military base right in Taiwan’s backyard.

Further, access to the nine bases allows the US to launch attacks not only on Chinese forces in Taiwan but, more significantly, directly to the Chinese mainland. Fujian province is only 700 kilometers away from the northernmost Philippine base.

Two. Apart from granting base access to America, the Philippines has entered into a reciprocal access agreement with Australia and Japan and soon, with France. With this, training for inter-operability of naval and air forces is realized, making the allied forces function more cohesively. The Philippines is expected to grant the same privilege to more allies.

Future armed conflicts will be characterized by greater interoperability among likeminded partners, and this means enhanced reciprocal access, greater participation in larger and more complex exercises and greater investments in advanced capabilities… Manila stands at an intersection of all these.

Three. The weather patterns and tidal behavior in the Taiwan Strait are unique. Access to Philippine bases allows America and her allies to train in the very site of combat. Through the Balikatan Military Exercises, the annual military exercises between the Philippines and the US, both countries are able to simulate maneuvers in the very location where they would take place. Balikatan is the largest joint military exercise, with 17,000 fighters participating, including soldiers from Australia and France. Fourteen like-minded countries observed the exercise.

Balikatan 2023 was conducted in the Ilocos Strait, the body of water that separates Taiwan and the Philippines.

Mastering the terrain of war was once a Chinese advantage. It no longer is.

Four. Formidable US presence in the Philippines allows the Americans to project power in the Indo-Pacific. It foils China’s plan to subsume the West Philippine Sea, parts of northern India, the Senkaku Islands of Japan and, of course, Taiwan itself. Moreover, US presence tempers China’s strategy of deploying grey zone towards weaker adversaries.

Five. Philippine involvement in an invasion of Taiwan is assured. This is because Manila has more than 200,000 Filipino workers in the island nation, all of whom will need to be evacuated. An evacuation plan is already in place. Moreover, Manila’s participation in the defense of Taiwan alongside the US is assured. The Philippines is also in a position to render critical medical and humanitarian support, given its large supply of health professionals.

The Philippines has had a long history of accepting refugees in response to humanitarian crisis. It did so for the Israelis during the holocaust, the Vietnamese during the Vietnam war, the Cambodians during the Khmer Rouge regime and Syrians during the Syrian Civil war, among others. Without doubt, the Philippines will do the same for the Taiwanese.

This is a cause for worry for China as it fears Taiwan’s talented tech-savvy work force may slip through the cracks and find their way to Manila. Even if the Chinese impose a blockade to deter an exodus of refugees, such blockade will likely be equalized by the US.

Six. The Philippines is the second fastest growing major economy in the world. It is exiting China’s belt and road initiative this year and pivoting to its trilateral partners, the US and Japan, for economic cooperation. The Philippines’ rapid development demonstrates that there is an alternative route outside Beijing’s BRI and debt traps.

The decision of the Philippines to confront China with bravery, despite the bullying, has tipped the advantage to the US. This has effectively foiled China’s intention to pursue its hegemonic ambitions with impunity.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan