Constituencies

Nationalism is one of the most powerful forces driving politics. It is a sentiment constantly reinforced by the state through rituals and symbols to legitimize itself.

The confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea is driven as much by the nationalist sentiments of their respective publics as it is by the cold calculation of modern diplomatic practice.

It is always easy to say that Beijing and Manila ought to sit down and arrive at a reasonable compromise on the contested reefs. But both these capitals probably need the confrontation to linger to appease domestic constituencies.

The Chinese Communist Party relies on assertive nationalism, more than any Marxist tenet, to sustain its legitimacy. The moment, for instance, Beijing renounces its claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea reefs, its legitimacy will quickly dissipate. Every strand of domestic discontent will regurgitate to the surface.

In the same way, Manila is wedded to keeping the rotting hull of the BRP Sierra Madre where it sits. Should that pathetic carcass of a ship be dragged away, government will lose face. Its approval ratings will plummet. All the accumulating discontent simmering under the surface will bubble up to the top.

Ironically, both Beijing and Manila are in a deathly embrace in this continuing squabble over a few rocks littering the South China Sea. Neither can yield anything under pain of provoking massive domestic disillusionment.

Last week, two very significant things happened.

A very influential congregation of business groups came together to issue a statement condemning China’s forceful interception of Filipino vessels out to resupply our Marine outpost at the BRP Sierra Madre. The last time this influential congregation of business groups came together behind a public statement, Joseph Estrada was ousted from power.

By late Friday, the Executive Secretary, speaking as head of some maritime affairs committee, convened an unusual press conference. After having journalists scrambling to cover what could be an earthshaking announcement, the Executive Secretary merely stated that our security officials considered the latest incident, where a Filipino sailor lost a thumb, as more of an “accident.”

It was, to say the least, a disappointing press conference. Our journalists are always expecting more drama and more color. The Executive Secretary personifies neither.

At any rate, the President no less visited the wounded sailor and decorated him. That seemed intended to counterbalance the letdown that was the hastily assembled press conference.

I could imagine why our security officials were so anxious to call that press conference. The clear and present danger did not come from the Chinese flotilla assembled in what we prefer to call the West Philippine Sea. The danger came from the possibility that rabble-rousers of every stripe would exploit the incident and indulge in another intense round of anti-China carnivals.

It is politically profitable to bash China. Our politicians use every incident in the shoals to elevate their name-recall and improve on their electability. The various strands of the Filipino Left routinely exploit such incidents in its desperate effort to rebuild their following. Nothing captures the imagination of the young as strident nationalist slogans.

Our security establishment, through the Executive Secretary, would not want to see the agitation gather any momentum. Strong domestic agitation will produce unrealistic expectations on the administration. It will cramp our space for diplomatic maneuver. It will constrict all other areas of our bilateral relationship with our powerful neighbor.

Already, a number of major Chinese investments have been shelved. The number of incoming Chinese tourists has dwindled, denying our tourism industry the fuel to grow. The sideshow of congressional investigations into POGO-related facilities threaten to induce more Sinophobia. Our own Filipino-Chinese business community is gravely concerned over the drift of things.

Nationalism, beyond certain parameters, could quickly transform into jingoism. When it does, it will become a truly destructive force.

In polite conversation, it is taboo to be Sinophobic. But beneath the surface, there is a strong undercurrent of the sentiment.

During the Spanish occupation, ethnic Chinese settlements were routinely massacred when they became too populous. Generations after, there remains strong traces of mutual suspiciousness.

In Indonesia, during the 1965 coup that toppled Sukarno and installed Suharto, over a million people were killed in what were actually communal riots. Although government policies carefully indigenized the ethnic Chinese population by requiring everyone to adopt Malay names, there remained strong resentment towards the relatively wealthier settlers. That was aggravated by the fact that many ethnic Chinese Indonesians supported the pro-China Indonesian Communist Party that the coup intended to exterminate.

It does not help that some of our politicians are recklessly speaking about an “invasion” in progress. That only feeds into degenerative emotions.

A thin line separates nationalism from jingoism. Over the recent period, given the skirmishes in the South China Sea and the dubious activities going on in some POGO hubs, that thin line could be breached.

It has been politically beneficial for Marcos Jr. – as it was for Marcos Sr. – to harness nationalist rhetoric and symbolism to cement its legitimacy and consolidate its base of support. With all that has been going on in our bilateral relationship, recent surveys found nearly 90 percent of Filipinos distrusting China. That provides good wind for the foreign policy sails the administration has put out.

But we must always bear in mind that nationalism is a dangerous thing to play with.