The US-China rivalry: Why is it happening and where is it heading?

Five shifts in global conditions over the last 50 years defined the relationship between the US and China today.

First, the center of economic activity has migrated east, with Asia comprising 37 percent of global GDP. Second, China has emerged as an economic, military and diplomatic power in itself. Third, from a unipolar world where the US was the lone superpower that dictated the world order, a transition has occurred where China now shares influence. Fourth, certain countries in the global south are gaining gravitas and asserting their influence on global affairs. India, Saudi Arabia and Brazil are among  them. Fifth, whereas western culture used to be the global benchmark of the civilized world, today, a multi-cultural world is upon us, with cultures of emerging economies coming into the mainstream.

All these threaten America’s predominance. As the reigning superpower, America is doing what every threatened empire would do – resist change to maintain its lone superpower status.

China, on the other hand, is coming from a different place. The country is fighting to recover from its century of humiliation which started in 1842. With new money and military gravitas, it feels entitled to regain its status as the world’s prevalent civilization as it was during the Tang Dynasty.

In normal circumstances, the US would never hurt, hinder or hamper the rapid development of emerging nations. It didn’t stand in the way of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar  nor Vietnam despite their Muslim and communist backgrounds. But China is different. Under the leadership  of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), China developed ambitions to gain political, economic, military and cultural dominion over others, or hegemonic ambitions, as we call it in political parlance. Hence, it has become too dangerous to have its way on the world.

Worse, the CCP has become brazen in its conduct as it pursues its ambitions. This is evident in its continued  defiance of the global legal system and its persistent bad behavior in commerce and trade. It has engaged in destructive behavior too, such as political interference, disinformation campaigns and leading poorer countries into debt traps. It has used economic and military coercion to subsume the territories of its neighbors. Under the CCP’s command, the pursuit of hegemony comes at the expense of others.

China has made no secret of its intentions to displace the US as the world’s predominant superpower and to change the world order. Once established, we can expect the CCP to dismantle the US-led rules-based system, embodied in the treaties and conventions of the United Nations, and replace them with a system that reflects Maoist-Marxist values. The existing frameworks for diplomacy, peace and security, territorial and maritime domains, trade and commerce and criminal justice will shift to one designed by the Chinese Communist Party.

Moreover, the CCP seeks to replace the present financial system whose origins is the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. It will be recalled that the Bretton Woods Agreement established the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency and standard currency used for international trade. The CCP has been vocal about its plan to replace the US dollar  with the yuan or at least a basket of currencies, including the yuan. (In the later scenario, the yuan will inevitably become the world’s predominant currency by virtue of China’s share of international trade.)

China’s ambitions are a threat for countries that value democracy, liberty, free market capitalism and the rules-based framework for international discourse. 

From Taiwan to the world

Not only does China view Taiwan as the last symbol of its century of humiliation, a unification with the mainland will accelerate China’s competence in high-tech industries. Militarily, subsuming Taiwan breaks the US line of defense on the first island chain, thereby extending China’s military reach. These are among the principal reasons why the CCP is dead set on unifying with Taiwan, even by force, as Xi has declared numerous times.

Should China succeed in annexing Taiwan, it will send a signal that the US is incapable of defending its allies and the democratic values we keep. It will give China a great morale and strategic advantage. 

Correspondingly, if  China is allowed to control and/or claim ownership of the East and South China Seas, it will give the CCP unprecedented control over world trade and the Indo-Pacific itself. Having dominion over the Indo-Pacific is precisely the power base China needs to project its influence worldwide. It brings it one step closer to dethroning the US.

Keeping the status quo

The best scenario is the status quo and engagement is key towards achieving this. However, great distrust between the US and China looms. What one views as aggressive behavior is deemed by the other as mere defensive moves. 

Still, attempts have been made by America to engage with China. Last year, President Biden invited the Chinese president for bilateral talks on the sidelines of the APEC Conference. Security and trade issues dominated the discussions.

Sadly, it was a case of one step forward, two steps back. Just weeks after the talks, China doubled down on its bad behavior. This was evident in the South China Sea where it engaged in even more aggressive behavior towards the Philippines, a country with a mutual defense treaty with the US. It was  succinct signal that the CCP is not ceding to President Biden’s overtures for engagement. The CCP’s brazen ways have made it impossible for engagement to work. 

Such behavior has left the US no choice but to increase its deterrence posture, even if it means escalating tensions. So for now, the world must live with high tensions and the specter of military confrontation.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan