Volodymyr Zelensky is indefatigable in his diplomatic work.
The Ukrainian president tried to attend all the major summits or at least assert his presence via teleconferencing to appeal for aid and muster support for his besieged nation. He has addressed the US Congress, the European summit meetings and even the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Over the weekend, he materialized in Singapore to speak before the Shangri-La security forum. His participation was unscheduled. The keynote speech in this year’s forum was delivered by Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos.
On Monday morning, Zelensky landed in Manila to call on Marcos. The visit, while official, was unannounced and very likely hastily scheduled.
Zelensky was expected to personally invite Marcos to attend the Global Peace Summit soon to be held in Switzerland. This summit is being organized at Kyiv’s initiative. He also wanted to personally thank Marcos for the Philippines’ condemnation of the Russian invasion.
Kyiv is planning to establish an embassy in Manila soon. This will help consolidate our bilateral relations and enable us to expand areas of cooperation.
No nation is too distant, too small or too poor to escape Zelensky’s relentless diplomacy. In Southeast Asia, Singapore and the Philippines have explicitly condemned Russian aggression in Ukraine.
For Ukraine, international support is vital to its survival as a nation. Broad international support will help enforce the sanctions imposed against Russia. It will help the besieged country scrape in as much material as it needs to frustrate the invasion.
For the Philippines, condemning the Russian invasion required a tough decision based on principle. The Philippines relies on Russia for critical raw materials, tourism inflows and possibly industrial investments. We are prepared to forego all these to help a struggling nation stand up against aggression.
Recently, the Philippines found some spine in standing up to China’s bullying. In President Marcos’ keynote speech at the Singapore summit, he underscored our determination to assert our exclusive economic zone. He stressed that the international community has a stake in keeping the vital sea lanes running through the South China Sea open to commercial navigation.
The more assertive foreign policy adopted by the Marcos government increased our geopolitical profile. Other European countries have expressed their interest in forging security alliances with us. We are now seen as a major regional player in pushing back China’s expansionist designs.
Recently, President Marcos was invited to the White House for a tripartite summit with Japan’s prime minister. That summit sets the groundwork for an effective regional alliance. It likewise produced numerous investment commitments to support Philippine development.
The foreign policy posture we now maintain vis-a-vis China will probably cost us billions in Chinese investments and assistance. But it establishes us as a reliable voice in strengthening a rules-based global order.
Our foreign policy posture pits us against the transactional relations Beijing cultivates with some of our Southeast Asian neighbors. That makes us a thorn on China’s side.
Our foreign policy posture is magnified by rising tensions at the Taiwan Strait. Many analysts believe that Beijing is ready to forcibly incorporate Taiwan as a province of China against the will of its democratic citizens. The only way to avert that is to show that neighboring countries will be ready to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack from the mainland.
Taiwan and the Philippines, like Ukraine, are standing up to bullying neighbors. We have no desire to fall into some undeclared Chinese sphere of influence in the region. We are strongly committed to democratic governance.
Taiwan and the Philippines, like Ukraine, are prepared to stand our ground in the face of aggression. Convenience cannot be more important than principle.
Most of our ASEAN partners are all too willing to pander to China for short-term commercial gains. The Philippines has been unable to get ASEAN support for its South China Sea claims because of this pandering. We have to seek support for our position from beyond the regional partnership.
President Marcos’ international profile improved dramatically since he adopted a tougher stance towards Beijing’s claims. His is an increasingly important voice in a global community working to establish a rules-based international order. That should reap its own benefits further down the road.
China must eventually come around to appreciating our position favoring a rules-based international regime if she is interested in de-escalating regional tensions. It is not the Philippines that should come around to submitting to China’s transactional diplomacy.
Zelensky sees through China’s claims of neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war. He understands that Beijing will be Moscow’s most reliable ally as Russia slides towards isolation. In fact, he believes China has been actively campaigning to discourage other countries from participating in the Global Peace Summit.
Over the next few months, Russia will be even more dependent on Chinese supplies of technology needed to keep up its war of aggression. China will increasingly put its trading networks at the service of Russian exports bottled up by sanctions.
That means, whether we like it or not, Ukraine and the Philippines become partners in breaking the power of the axis of tyrants seeking to redefine global politics according to its terms. We are destined to be allies of common fate in helping each other deter aggressive neighbors.
Zelensky’s decision to visit Manila may appears spontaneous. The contrary is true. It is the outcome of a profound reading of the strategic realignments now happening.