Technology will change geopolitics

Geopolitics is the study of the effects of the Earth’s geography on politics and international relations. For example, the conflict between China and the Philippines is primarily dictated by geography in the sense that both countries border the South China Sea. In terms of geopolitics, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine from hindsight was inevitable.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, nobody thought that Ukraine could survive for more than a few weeks at most. Russia had more than twice as many soldiers as Ukraine. Its military budget was more than ten times as large. The US intelligence community estimated that Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, would fall within one or two weeks at the most.

Against tremendous odds, Ukraine has so far survived. One reason is of course, the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian population. Another reason is that Ukraine used technology to level the fighting field.

The effect of artificial intelligence (AI) may be still be a bit off in the future.

However, the technology of drones has been used effectively by Ukraine. This is a lesson that the Philippines can use if they ever come into conflict with a superior military nation. Ukraine has been able to manufacture its own drones with its distinct advantage over traditional weapons. They are smaller and cheaper and offer unmatched surveillance capabilities. They also reduce the risk of exposure of ordinary soldiers. Ukraine has been able to sink Russian naval vessels and inflict serious damage on Russian infrastructure inside Russia. Again, I repeat that these were done with drones manufactured in Ukraine itself.

Imagine if the Philippines could develop its own capability to manufacture simple drones that can be used for surveillance in the West Philippine Sea and also used to attack any forces that may invade any part of this country.

Technological dominance is becoming more crucial in bolstering any country’s ability to wage war. Innovation in simple technologies has also given less powerful countries economic power by giving them leverage over supply chains.

Countries that enjoy advantages in technology are becoming fewer. Due to more accessible academic research and the rise of open-source software, technologies are now spreading more quickly around the world. In fact, the Philippines could access technology that will allow it to maintain surveillance over the whole West Philippine Sea and most of the South China Sea.

China has made technological breakthroughs partly by developing its own technology and partly by industrial espionage. In the superpower rivalry between the United States and China, the deciding factor will definitely be which one has the superior technology. Technological advances in the next five to ten years will determine which nation will gain the upper hand in this global competition.

Cyberwarfare is another competition that is going to become crucial in the next decade. Even now, the ability to hack is already becoming a weapon that is being used to a limited extent currently. But cyberwarfare has the potential to shut down entire energy networks and financial systems and all types of public utilities. This has also become a tool for spreading disinformation and interfering in the elections of other countries. This is a skill that the Philippines can easily develop.

Definitely, the Philippines must learn to defend ourselves from cyberattacks.

Private firms have already begun to develop technologies to defend itself from cyberattacks.

The other area we must study is to understand the thinking behind President Xi Jinping’s increasingly aggressive stance around the world. Xi has consolidated his power and secured an unprecedented third term. This has made it crucial for the world, including the Philippines to understand his worldview that drives him and his ambition for China.

In an article written by Kevin Rudd, president of the Asia Society in New York and former prime minister of Australia, he said: “Under Xi, ideology drives policy more often than the other way around. Xi has pushed politics to the Leninist Left, economics to the Marxist Left, and foreign policy to the nationalist right. He has reasserted the influence and control of the CCP, exerts overall domains of public policy and private life, reinvigorated state-owned enterprises and placed new restrictions on the private sector.” Rudd believes Xi has used nationalism to pursue an aggressive foreign policy. Xi also believes that history is irreversibly on China’s side and that the world should be anchored on Chinese power.

It is clear that Xi Jinping has clearly ended the era of Deng Xiaoping which introduced market reforms and was responsible for the economic miracle of China. Even now, the reversal of Deng’s reforms has led to economic problems for China. However, Rudd concludes that whatever may unfold, Xi will not abandon his ideology.

With that in mind, the Philippines must learn to use technology to defend itself with the understanding that China under Xi Jinping will continue its aggressive foreign policy.