Treasonous?

A long-time critic has accused former president Rodrigo Duterte of betraying the country for allegedly surrendering the Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal to China. Senator Risa Hontiveros wants to probe the ‘gentleman’s agreement’ on the West Philippine Sea between Manila and Beijing, which she describes as treasonous. Nothing could be further from the truth. I suggest the legislator brush up on our existing laws and statutes so she can be better informed.

Treason is a crime that can only occur during an armed conflict. Article 114 of the Revised Penal Code, as amended by Republic Act 7659, defines it as “any Filipino citizen who levies war against the Philippines or adheres to her enemies giving them aid or comfort within the Philippines or elsewhere.”

Hontiveros should also revisit the 2017 decision of Ombudsman Conchita Carpio-Morales that dismissed the treason and espionage case filed against the late president Benigno Aquino III and former senator Antonio Trillanes IV (Inquirer). It stemmed from the backchannel talks between Trillanes (as authorized by Aquino) and Chinese authorities following the 2012 Panatag Shoal standoff. The ombudsman ruled that “treason is a war crime and not an all-time offense…While there is peace, there are no traitors”(The STAR).

Modus vivendi

There is nothing criminal about the verbal pact or ‘modus vivendi’ (an interim agreement between contending parties before a final settlement which, in my view, is in the form of a ‘gentleman’s agreement’), as referred to by former defense secretary Delfin Lorenza. While not formalized into a treaty under the Vienna Convention on the Law of the Treaties, the status quo arrangement disallowed construction, installation or reclamation activities in the disputed waterways. As a result, it eased the maritime tensions between the Philippines and China from 2016-2022. We did not lose a single territory to China under the watch of FPRRD.

In 2017, Lorenzana told the House of Representatives that then-foreign affairs secretary Alan Cayetano brokered the ‘modus vivendi.’ Under the arrangement, China would not occupy new features in WPS or build structures in Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal (Inquirer).

Implementing the status quo policy is not new for our government. During the Aquino administration, we agreed with China to refrain from building additional structures in Ayungin. In a 2013 media interview, then secretary Voltaire Gazmin said the Philippine rotation and resupply missions would only center on bringing food and water to stationed Filipino troops (Inquirer). In 2014, the government ordered a moratorium on infrastructure works on Pag-asa (Thitu) Island. It was in deference to the arbitration case we filed against China (The STAR).

Let me clarify that the modus vivendi or the “gentleman’s agreement” did not center on Ayungin alone. Nevertheless, it helped sustain and protect the lives of our soldiers stationed in the marooned BRP Sierra Madre, which has served as our naval post since 1999. As part of our resupply mission to Ayungin, China only allowed the delivery of humanitarian supplies but not construction materials to our soldiers.

However, there was no official commitment from FPRRD to that effect. Likewise, he did not promise China we would remove BRP Sierra Madre from Ayungin.

Tickling the dragon’s tail

Previously, the Marcos administration denied any intention to poke the bear. But its new defense paradigm, called the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC) and reorganized National Maritime Council might have already tickled the tail of the dragon. In particular, the CADC could further stoke the flames of enmity between the Philippines and China.

Military officials describe the new external security strategy as a whole-of-government, multi-dimensional approach to our conflicting claims with the Middle Kingdom. The CADC aims to integrate the country’s strengthened land, air and naval defense capabilities to counter the aggressive acts of the Asian superpower (The Diplomat). For instance, the National Security Council said the Philippines is ready to respond to China’s attempt to disrupt its resupply missions in the Ayungin (Reuters).

Indeed, the Constitution mandates the Armed Forces of the Philippines to protect our sovereignty and national territory. Nonetheless, China might construe the CADC as a provocation awaiting retaliation. The new defense strategy comes at the lowest point of our bilateral relations since the 2012 Panatag standoff between Filipino and Chinese vessels.

Therefore, I cannot help but question whether the government is sincerely committed to pacifying the WPS situation. At this point, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. should be seeking a peaceful dispute settlement through negotiation, mediation or arbitration, among others, under Article 33 of the United Nations Charter.

Or is the Chief Executive keen on starting an armed conflict with China, assuming the United States would readily aid the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty?

If we continue to outrage China, I am afraid that it will lead our country to an unwinnable military and non-military warfare against our rival. If we escalate our conflict with the Middle Kingdom, the consequences would be catastrophic. It would mean delivering our Filipino soldiers right into the mouth of the dragon, given the superior navy and air force of the People’s Liberation Army. It would mean sacrificing the well-being of our countrymen, whose jobs and livelihoods are dependent on Chinese traders and investors.

Wagging the dog

Thus, in raising the specter of a potential armed conflict with China and dragging the United States as a third-party participant the administration is employing the classic “wag the dog” tactic.

It is trying to divert public attention from the pressing issues it has failed to resolve, such as inflation, unemployment and worsening peace and order situation. Based on recent Pulse Asia and Octa Research surveys, the spiraling cost of goods and services remains the top-most concern among Filipinos.

The current leadership must also distance itself from controversies surrounding the Charter change initiative spearheaded by Malacañang allies in the House of Representatives. Ergo, the need for distraction. An overwhelming 88 percent of Filipinos are against amending the 1987 Constitution (Pulse Asia).

Compounding the administration’s woes is the increasing public distrust and disapproval of the Marcos presidency, specifically in Mindanao and the Class E group (Pulse Asia). Fifteen percent indicated their distrust in PBBM and 20 percent said they disapprove of his leadership. House Speaker Martin Romualdez remains the least trusted and most disapproved top official. The presidential cousins are proponents of the controversial Cha-cha initiative.

As far as the Americans coming to our immediate aid in case of a war, I do not see it happening. The US will commit economic suicide if it engages in a military conflict with its biggest creditor and most important trader. A few days ago, Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping held their first call since meeting in November. According to the Associated Press, the leaders primarily discussed the Taiwan issue. It shows that the Taiwan Strait crisis will always be on America’s top agenda vis-a-vis security issues in the Indo-Pacific.