A Bulacao-to-Talamban subway

Ever since, Bulacao and Talamban had always been used as the terminal points when one mentions future public transport proposals for Cebu. Most probably because these two are the identified end points of what is considered traditionally as one of the main “urban arteries” of Cebu City’s transport corridor (the other one being Bulacao to Mabolo, towards Mandaue). Thus, from the time the first “pre-investment” study was made in 1989, a Bulacao-Talamban route was always used.

I used “pre-investment” study and not “plan” because there were already previous plans which also identified this route. In particular the “The Metro Cebu Land Use and Transport Study (MCLUTS) in 1974 already included both a coastal and hillside alignment for Metro Cebu. All rail project proposals in the decades past always drew a Talisay-to-Mandaue alignment (e.g., Bulacao to Mabolo in Cebu City). But later, in the ‘90’s, the Bulacao-Talamban alignment likewise emerged, and thus became the central one today. Especially with the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT).

There are two levels of discussions planners need to tackle with a Bulacao-to-Talamban subway proposal --one which refers to users and the other referring to technology. That the idea came out during a “Cebu BRT” discussion may make us think this is still for public transport as opposed to vehicle traffic. We won’t know unless this is clarified. It may mean a subterranean rail-based solution or an underground general road network for all traffic --the two will have different analyses as to pros-and-cons and financial and economic viabilities.

By subway we must assume it’s underground, whether for public transport or general city traffic. If it’s below grade, that will take us to another higher level of discussion as to technical viability, but more importantly, financial, and economic ones. We have a general idea of Metro Cebu’s soil and subgrade makeup but for the level of actually building an underground road system, more detailed geotechnical investigations are required. If we’re serious, then we need to do that soon --these are basic necessities for any subgrade design.

Over and above that, the financial and economic investigations have to be undertaken. The technical design is easy and as many of us usually say almost anything can be constructed, it’s the price which matters. At the end of the, there might be many aspects of comparison for at-grade, above-grade, or subgrade mass transportation systems, or their combinations, but the financial one matters, and the economic analysis is the main basis for official approval. All these are mostly answered by a feasibility study, and the required proper evaluation by NEDA.

Still, there’s common sense. Every planner knows the relative costs of on-grade, subgrade, and above-grade rail systems, even without a feasibility study. At this point in time, 2024, chances of a subway in Cebu City getting NEDA approval, remains an outside shot, if at all. The Cebu BRT, as planned and implemented, has remained as the best option for Cebuanos having a better, if not the best, mobility in the future. It would be decades before an upgrading to surface or overhead rail (but not a subway) would become feasible, inasmuch as the BRT’s capacity can be easily upgraded.