A hesitant America and an aggressive China

In an unabashed attempt to spin the narrative, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently accused the Philippines of provocation and escalating tensions in the West Philippine Sea. He warned the Philippines of a more “resolute response” in the event of future run-ins.

The Philippine government must not succumb or be intimidated by Chinese threats. On the contrary, it must be more aggressive in staking its claims. Because real provocation, on the Philippines’ part, is displaying weakness. Weakness is akin to an open invitation allowing the Chinese to have its way, with impunity, on Philippine sovereign territories. Weakness is provocation.

The Philippines is right to escalate tensions as doing so is a form of deterrence. Escalation and deterrence are strategic responses, given the severity of China’s attacks and incursions. It sends the signal that the Philippines has the resolve to defend what it owns. The challenge, however, is to escalate sufficiently and not go overboard so as to put us an in a situation we cannot manage.

Meanwhile, the Philippine government is right to forge as many defense alliances with like-minded countries as this too is a form of deterrence. Signing a Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan is the next logical step.

China is America’s Frankenstein

Rewind to 1971 and China was an isolated country whose population suffered from abject hunger. Civil unrest was in the air as the Chinese Communist Party struggled to maintain its credibility as a dependable regime.

It was president Richard Nixon who introduced China to the free market system. It was President Clinton who shepherded China’s membership into the World Trade Organization. American leaders mistakenly thought that as China grew in wealth on the back of free trade, it would embrace the American-led world order along with western values.

It was a grave miscalculation. China never abandoned its Maoist principles. Rather, it bided its time until it became wealthy enough to challenge the US. Its objective never changed – it is to destroy the present world order – the very order that made it wealthy – and replace it with one that reflects Maoist values and mechanisms that serves China’s sole interest.

America gambled on China and lost. In fact, near his death, Nixon admitted to have created a “Frankenstein” in China.

In the 90s and early 2000’s, America was so focused on the war on terror that it failed to fully recognize the Chinese threat. Meanwhile, China and Russia remained resolute in their plan to displace the US as the pre-eminent world power.

America failed to invest sufficiently in its navy such that the Chinese were able to catch up. It under-invested in nuclear manufacturing facilities such that it is now bereft of sufficient capacities to manufacture the nuclear warheads it needs to fight multiple wars, as it now must.

Exacerbating matters were the conflict-averse attitudes of presidents Obama and Biden. Their postures are miles away from president Reagan, who perfectly understood the concept of deterring threatening powers and nipping them in the bud. It will be recalled that Reagan engaged in the arms race with resolve, sending clear signals that any threat to America and/or its allies will lead to catastrophic outcomes. The Russians never dared to engage. Back then, America wielded a big stick.

In contrast, President Biden remains hesitant to wield his proverbial stick. In the early days of the Ukraine invasion, we recall how President Biden disallowed sharing real-time intelligence with the Ukrainians for fear that Russia might consider the US a co-combatant of war. Neither did he provide the Ukraine with long-range strike systems for fear that it might upset the Russians. The hesitance backfired. It allowed Russia to carry out its invasion and dictate the rhythm of war.

The Chinse Communist Party detected Biden’s hesitance and seeming lack of confidence. This emboldened them to be more aggressive – so bold as to fire water cannons at Filipino vessels despite the Philippines having a mutual defense treaty with the US. China’s brazen actions is a taunt to the US, as if to say, “What are you going to do about it now?”

What is worrisome is that other nations are following China’s lead. North Korea openly forges arms deals with the Russians and engages in ballistic missile tests without even making an effort to hide it.

America is still the world’s predominant military, economic and diplomatic superpower and it should act as such. It should not hesitate to use the threat of hard power and economic sanctions on nations that threaten the world order. Enemies of democracy must know, in no uncertain terms, that America will severely punish those who attempt to disrupt the status quo. This is strategic deterrence, working as it should.

Russia would have not invaded the Ukraine if America’s deterrence were sufficient. America should not make the same mistake in the Indo-Pacific because the stakes are higher.

Should China succeed to annex Taiwan, it will send a signal that the US is incapable of defending its allies. It will give China a great morale and strategic advantage.

If it is allowed to subsume the South China Sea, it will allow the communists to control the bulk of world trade and give China unprecedented economic and military control over the Indo-Pacific.

Having dominion over Taiwan and the sea lanes is precisely the power base China needs to project its influence worldwide. It brings it one step closer to dethroning the US.

The world is looking at America to wield its big stick. This includes sufficiently arming and assisting its allies in the battlefield. Not to do so will only cause China to carry out its plans with impunity.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan