Like most of the nation, we listened intently to the State of the Nation address of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. last month. He ended his less than two-hour speech by declaring that “the state of the nation is sound and is improving.”
The President is right. And indeed, it is improving.
He addressed various sectors where we are improving. Agriculture, education, tourism, digitalization of the bureaucracy and more. He provided figures that these are indeed improving.
For instance, the President mentioned, “In 2022, the digital economy contributed P2 trillion, equivalent to 9.4 percent of our GDP.” Regarding tourism, he said, “From January to June this year, we have received 3 million international visitors. This number is already 62 percent of our 4.8-million target for the entire year.” In education, he stated that “more and more of our higher education institutions (HEIs) have reached world-class status. This year, 52 Philippine HEIs have been included in the World Universities Rankings, compared to just 15 last year. Last year, out of the 4.1 million enrolled college students, almost 50 percent were beneficiaries of the country’s free higher education under the Universal Access to Quality Tertiary Education program.”
For digitalization and scientific development, Marcos, Jr. said that “the Philippines has launched two additional satellites into space. Together with the first satellite, they will track weather, predict storms, evaluate soil and water supply, analyze population shifts and be used for traffic management, geo-hazard mapping and risk assessment, including security and defense.”
While we are indeed fine in these aspects, we could do much better if one looks at where the state of the nation is within a broader global context, especially within the context of our being part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
This is an opportunity to take a hard look at ourselves from a global comparative perspective. Unfortunately, while we are OK, we could do much better.
And therein lies the challenge for our lawmakers and policymakers.
For instance, he talked about tourism. Five million tourists came to the Philippines in 2023. But how many tourists visited our neighbors during the same period?
In 2022, Statista cited the Bank of Thailand, Thailand had 11.15 million tourists. Even during the pandemic in 2020, they had 6.7 million tourist arrivals and as many as 39.8 million tourists in 2019. In June, the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism said the first six months of 2023 had over 5.5 million foreign visitors. In 2022, from Statista, Singapore had 6.31 million tourists. Also, regarding international airports, Vietnam has nine, while Indonesia has 34. The Philippines only has eight.
Then he talked about connectivity and digitalization. He said we improved and that “because of system upgrades, our internet speed has improved. As of June this year, our fixed broadband speed ranks 47th among 180 countries. This ranking is 11 places higher than it was in 2022. Our mobile internet speed is now rated at 83 out of 142 countries, which is eight places higher than it was last year.”
How do we compare to our neighbors? According to the Speedtest Global Index 2023, the Philippines has a fixed broadband speed of 92.84 Mbps and ranks 47th among 180 countries. Compared to others, Singapore wields the 1st place in fixed broadband internet among the 180 countries with 247.29 Mbps. Vietnam is in 44th place with its 93.44 Mbps. Malaysia has the 39th spot at 95.69 Mbps. Thailand is in the top 6 at 206.60 Mbps.
Additional data from the same index in 2023 on mobile internet speed indicate that while the Philippines has its 83rd place at 26.98 Mbps, Malaysia’s 48.10 Mbps earned 46th place. Singapore is in 25th place at 77.95 Mbps. Thailand has 40.15 Mbps, giving it 60th place. Vietnam has 47.31 Mbps and secured its 50th place. Brunei is in 5th place at 129.04 Mbps. We definitely need to catch up with our neighbors.
For social welfare, the President said, “Last week, we introduced the pilot Food Stamp Program (FSP), which seeks to supply the nutrition needs of the million most food-poor Filipinos.” However, how do we fare with our neighbors? Our peers have a Human Development Index that far exceeds ours. In 2021, the latest from HDI, Singapore has 0.939 (Very High). Vietnam has 0.703 HDI (High). Malaysia has 0.803 (Very High), Thailand has 0.8 (Very High) and Indonesia has 0.705 (High). On the other hand, the Philippines has 0.699 (Medium). We have made progress, but have a long way to go.
In agriculture, “Our aim is to boost local agricultural production – through consolidation, modernization, mechanization and improvement of value chains – augmented by timely and calibrated importation, as needed. We have seen that the agriculture output has increased by 2.2 percent in the first three months of 2023.”
However, in 2021, Thailand’s agriculture earned 1.38 trillion baht ($39,976,833,600). In Indonesia’s 2022 agricultural output, they earned 2.43 quadrillion rupiah ($165.7 billion). In the Philippines, agricultural trade in the second quarter of 2022 just amounted to $6.95 billion.
Then the President referred to education. Where are we as far as education metrics are vis-a-vis our neighbors? The Philippines ranks second to worst in Grade 5 students’ reading and math skills among Southeast Asian countries, according to the Southeast Asia Primary Learning Metrics 2019 (SEA-PLM). The study reveals that only 10 percent of Filipino students meet the minimum reading standard, and only 17 percent meet the minimum math standard expected at the end of primary education. Grade 5 students in the Philippines scored 288, compared to students in Vietnam 316, Malaysia 319, Myanmar 292 and Cambodia 290 in reading assessment. At the same time, only Laos falls behind with a lower average score of 275.
Regarding higher education, according to Times Higher Education, the best universities in Asia are mostly in China – Tsinghua and Peking University ranked 1 and 2 in Asia and 16 and 17 in the world in 2022-2023. The National University of Singapore is in 3rd place in Asia and 19th in the world. In 2023, the University of the Philippines Diliman (UPD) is at 201-250th in Asia and 801-1000th in the world, Ateneo De Manila University is at 84th in Asia and 351-400th worldwide, De La Salle University is at 501-600th in Asia and 1201-1500th globally. There is so much to be done.
Our point is certainly not meant to be a sweeping wet blanket. But, given the enormous possibilities, the SONA could also be an opportunity to disturb our lawmakers, policymakers and the general public that we are OK. Still, we could do much, much better.
The picture has not always been that bleak. Dr. Michael Alba, an economist and the 11th president of Far Eastern University, pointed out that the Philippines had Asia’s second-largest per capita GDP in the 1950s. Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, once regarded as the Philippines’ Southeast Asian peers, are now classified as high-performing economies aiming for first-world status. However, the Philippines is on a low-growth track. This situation has to change, or the Philippines will risk getting left far behind. The country might need help to compete well in the world economy, diminishing its survival capacity in an inherently anarchic world order.
Without downplaying our achievements or criticizing anyone, our neighbors like Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam have left us behind. In 2020, the IMF forecast that Vietnam’s GDP per capita of $3,498 would overtake the Philippines’ GDP per capita of $3,373. This development is not because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Vietnamese gradually made progress. It took 40 years because Vietnam’s income per capita was 83 percent of the Philippines’ in 1980.
Also, the share of our fellow ASEAN states’ GDP vis-a-vis industry illustrates how much their governments have prioritized manufacturing and other high-productivity sectors. As of 2021, Vietnam’s GDP for manufacturing is at 36.6 percent. Thailand’s is at 34.3 percent. Indonesia at 39.4 percent. Malaysia is at 36.8 percent. The Philippines is 29.2 percent, while its services comprise 60.7 percent of its GDP.
And, of course, there’s the elephant in the room – Corruption. In the 2022 Corruption Perception Index, the Philippines scored 33 and ranked 113 worldwide. Indonesia scored 34 and ranked 110. Vietnam scored 42 and ranked 77. Malaysia was rated 47 and got 61st place. Thailand ranked 101 and scored 36. Singapore scored 83 and ranked 5th. While the administration’s commitment to national development is impressive, a clean and competent political leadership across generations is imperative.
Robert Rotberg pointed out that corruption inevitably harms the effective implementation of public services, which adversely affects human lives on a global scale along with its great potential to trigger conflicts and erode national interests, a strong anti-corruption strategy is important to ensure that good governance will be sustained. Similarly, the Chandler Institute of Governance stated that good national governance can determine a nation’s development success or ruin. This ideal can only be attained by having good structures in place.
Yes, we are getting our act together, and it is good to be optimistic, but it looks like neighbors are zooming past us. We could do more by supporting manufacturing, especially industrial development. The President mentioned the Balik Scientist Program and the renewed support for Research and Development. We must continue to push for agro-industrialization. One step that could be considered would be to bring back the Bureau of Industrial Development. This thrust can help focus policies and initiatives bolstering agricultural productivity, a known priority of the Marcos Jr. administration.
Let us be more ambitious in our developmental goals and not be satisfied by our seeming mediocrity. We need to take a hard look at ourselves. We need to have a sense of urgency. We need to build upon the hard-earned gains of our predecessors, a long-term project where generations of Filipinos must work towards the Ambisyon Natin 2040 goals of the matatag, maginhawa at panatag na buhay para sa lahat (a secure, comfortable and decent life for all).
We must aim not just to survive but to thrive and excel. And we must act with a sense of urgency.
The state of the nation is sound. But we could – and must – do better.
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Alex Brillantes Jr. and Karl Emmanuel Ruiz are with the University of the Philippines National College of Public Administration.