AI-aided forecasting

A geologist by training, Department of Science and Technology (DOST) head Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. supports the policy decision of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (PBBM) to construct water-impounding structures as a science-based solution to flooding and as a climate change adaptation measure. In particular, Solidum believes the proposed water-impounding project at the Candaba swamp in Pampanga could mitigate the severe flooding and become an irrigation source in Central Luzon.

Solidum called upon to all national and local government officials to come to an agreement as soon as possible on the most effective “design” for the water-impounding project in the affected areas. In our Kapihan sa Manila Bay breakfast news forum last Wednesday, Solidum disclosed a research and development (R & D) study of the DOST supports the policy issue “to harmonize” any natural hazards and focus on effects of encroachment by human settlements around the riverbank areas.

In the two latest typhoons that hit Central Luzon one after the other, Solidum cited, rainfalls from both “Egay” and “Falcon” raised the water level around the Pampanga River Basin as high as 464.8 millimeters. Solidum noted this was more than its normal capacity of 375 millimeters high. Much higher than that, Solidum revealed, was the Clark River System that went up to as high as 833 millimeters. Compared to its capacity of 514.6 millimeters, this was 165 percent above normal, Solidum computed.

“Indeed, we should always think that the cause of flooding is there’s excess water from heavy rainfall,” Solidum pointed out. Solidum added this should be complemented by other solutions, including relocation of communities in areas with a chronic flooding problem.

Solidum recalled that while he was still at the Philippine Institute of Volcanology  (Phivolcs) a policy decision was made “to sacrifice” an entire Porac River in Pampanga. This was to address the lahar flooding that continued cascading from Mt. Pinatubo years after its explosive eruption in June 1991. This justified the construction of a “mega-dike” as the long-term solution, the ex-PhiVolcs chief cited.

PBBM initially raised the idea of using 200 hectares of the Candaba swamp out of its total area of 2,000 hectares into a water-impounding structure. PBBM stressed the location of the water-impounding project would be dictated “by nature, not by politics.” This was after Pampanga Rep. Ana York Bondoc argued against it and threatened to walk out of the briefing room. Bondoc pointed to farmers who she claimed would be displaced by the project.

Called as “Nanay” in Pampanga, Gov. Baby Pineda was seen trying to calm down Bondoc while the latter ranted against former Public Works and Highways Secretary Rogelio “Babes” Singson. Now the head of the Metro Pacific Tollways Corp. (MPTC), Singson raised this proposal with PBBM during the situation briefing held at the provincial capitol in San Fernando City, Pampanga. Singson was among the resource persons in behalf of the MPTC that operates the North Luzon Expressway (NLEX) where vehicles going in and out of Pampanga and Bulacan got stuck in flooded highways at the height of the onslaughts of the two typhoons.

Solidum was not among the Cabinet officials who joined the President during the dialogues on flood-mitigation measures. However, Solidum vouched for the water-impounding project as the most viable climate change adaption to the Central Luzon flooding problem. Aside from mitigating the floods, Solidum argued, the water retention facility will save accumulated rainfalls as a source of irrigation for nearby farms against drought due to the El Niño phenomenon, or the long dry period.

“We need to manage the water,” the DOST chief quipped.

Solidum offered the DOST services to check out the design of proposed water retention basins for its efficacy to manage heavy rain overflow.

A career public servant for more than 30 years, Solidum has not engaged in politics-driven solutions in addressing natural calamities and other geo-hazards all around the Philippines. Exactly a year ago, PBBM appointed Solidum to his Cabinet. Solidum originally wanted to become a civil engineer, but ended taking up Geology at the University of the Philippines. After he got his Ph.D. in Earth Science in Chicago, Illinois, he started his career in 1984 at PhiVolcs that was spun off from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

The PAGASA and PhiVolcs are among the 19 attached agencies of the DOST. PBBM has yet to name though up to now a permanent PAGASA Administrator. According to Solidum, veteran weather specialist Nathaniel Servando who returned to PAGASA is serving as officer-in-charge.

Pointing to the climate change phenomenon during the discussions on flooding with local officials in Bulacan, PBBM virtually questioned the reliability of PAGASA weather predictions when El Niño is supposedly prevailing in the Philippines.

Cracking a joke about it, PBBM chuckled: “I don’t think they heard the PAGASA forecast. So it poured so much waters.”

Levity aside, Solidum clarified the global warming has been affecting the weather systems all over the world, including the Philippines. From the eastern side, he cited, the trade winds from the Pacific Ocean carry no more water but the monsoon carries the rainwaters from the west.

Solidum quoted the latest PAGASA forecast that the El Niño period has yet to be fully felt but is expected to peak by the third quarter of this year and will supposedly last until the first quarter of 2024.

Demystifying the seeming contradictions of having an El Niño dry spell and the reality that it is also raining sporadically, the DOST chief admitted the need to improve their “science communications.” So that the media, the decision-makers in and out of the government, and the public in general will get to know it better, he conceded.

Better yet, he announced the DOST is preparing more data for artificial intelligence (AI)-aided forecasting, especially for disaster risk reduction preparations.