Not an exact science

It is not certain if it was meant to be a joke, or a dig at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). But it was clear as day when President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (PBBM) virtually questioned the reliability of PAGASA weather predictions amid the climate change phenomenon. Ostensibly, it was a way of making light the discussions with national and local government officials during a meeting when PBBM cracked the joke.

Accompanied by several Cabinet members in Malolos, Bulacan last Monday, PBBM took up with local officials the need to come up with permanent and long-term solutions to the perennial problem of flooding in the Central Luzon region. PBBM initially acknowledged the flooding problem in Bulacan, Pampanga and the rest of provinces in Central Luzon have become far more serious through the years with the advent of climate change.

The two provinces were hardest hit by Super Typhoon Egay that was worsened by monsoon rains from July 24 to 27. Then, two days later, Tropical Storm Falcon passed through the same path from July 29 to August 1. The heavy rainfall for almost two weeks filled to the brims the dams in Angat, Ipo, and Bustos. So much so, the waters from the dams were released to prevent dangerous overflow. However, it consequently added to the severe flooding that reached all the way down to the National Capital Region.

Ironically, the water in these dams declined to lowest levels only a few weeks earlier due to the El Niño phenomenon.

Its opposite phenomenon is called La Niña, or prolonged rainy period.

After making aerial inspection over the two provinces, PBBM sat down and heard the laments of local government officials on the prevailing situation after Egay and Falcon that left many of their low-lying areas still flooded up to present. Technically, PBBM quoted the PAGASA prediction that the country is already under the El Niño period. “Pero kung titingnan mo yung ulan at baha, parang hindi yata narinig ang forecast ng PAGASA. Kaya’t nagbuhos nang nagbuhos ng napakalaking tubig,” PBBM wisecracked. (But look at the rains, look at the floods. I don’t think they heard the PAGASA forecast. So it poured so much water.)

The PAGASA is one of the attached agencies of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) headed by Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. PBBM has yet to name though up to now a permanent PAGASA administrator. PAGASA Deputy Administrator for Research & Development Esperanza Cayanan is concurrently serving as officer-in-charge.

It was during the martial law rule of PBBM’s late namesake father, President Marcos Sr. who created PAGASA pursuant to the Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Science Act of 1972. The geophysics function of PAGASA was transferred to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, also attached to the DOST.

Speaking to reporters after the situation briefing in Bulacan, PBBM underscored the dire need to manage the abundant water resources of the country amid climate change that has made the weather unpredictable. “Because of climate change, we won’t go back to where we were before. The wet season and dry season we are expecting are no longer applicable because of climate change,” PBBM explained.

The Chief Executive reiterated Filipinos must adjust to the worsening impact of climate change. “We need really to study and understand what we should do because it’s difficult because we’re dealing with the (changing) weather, we need to adjust and we have to do many things,” he stressed.

To his credit, PBBM is pursuing government programs and projects even if started by the previous administrations but are worth continuing. Unlike his immediate predecessors, PBBM is neither vindictive nor bitter about the past.

A good example of which was the project to build a water impounding facility in Candaba, Pampanga that was started during the past administration of the late President Benigno Simeon “PNoy” Aquino III. PBBM listened to PNoy’s former Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) Secretary Rogelio “Babes” Singson who suggested this project during the situation briefing in Pampanga.

Singson, who now heads Metro Pacific Tollways Corp., recalled he first pushed for this proposed Candaba water-impounding project during PNoy’s term to address flooding in Central Luzon as early as 2013. This project seeks to set aside 200 hectares out of the 2,000 hectares around Candaba swamp in San Fernando City, Pampanga into water impounding but DPWH never got to implement it.

PBBM stressed the location of the water-impounding project would be dictated “by nature, not by politics.” This was after Pampanga Rep. Ana York Bondoc argued against it and threatened to walk out of the briefing room. Bondoc pointed to farmers who she claimed will be displaced by the project. “If that happens, I will resign from DA (Department of Agriculture) because it is not right,” PBBM declared.

This reminded me when PAGASA first got the presidential goat. On August 7, 2010, an irritated PNoy publicly scolded weather bureau officials for their failure to advise the government of the precise direction of winds brought by Typhoon Basyang. The PAGASA weather forecasters predicted it would just pass through northern Luzon but to PNoy’s consternation, it directly hit Metro Manila.

PNoy replaced then PAGASA’s chief weather forecaster Prisco Nilo. A veteran career forecaster, Nilo was transferred to become an undersecretary of the DOST.

After sacking Nilo, PNoy was quoted saying: “Weather prediction is not really black magic.”

But what riled PNoy was he relied on the PAGASA weather prediction and got bashed when he went ahead with hosting a sit down dinner with Malacañang reporters at the height of Basyang while Metro Manila got flooded. This was the fact, not a joke.

Weather forecasting is not an exact science. Better application of science and technology can predict weather with greater accuracy. Altered by climate change, predicting the weather patterns become more exacting.