The state of the nation's foreign policy

While the Duterte administration was definitely pro-China, pro-Russia, and anti-US, this administration of PBBM is visibly more inclined towards Washington than to Beijing or Moscow. And the recent visit by the former president to Xi Jinping, despite the ultra-diplomatic pronouncement of Malacañang, was a palpable breach of protocol. BBM just does not wish to create damage to the alliance between the Marcoses and the Dutertes. At least, for the moment.

PNoy would never have done that to PRRD nor GMA to PNoy. It has never been done before in all history. My former students who work in DFA and in the Palace whispered to me that it was really a move initiated by Beijing and facilitated by China's embassy in Manila. That surreptitious visit was Beijing's overt act to vex and to irritate US President Joe Biden who called him what he truly is; a dictator. By that gambit, Xi Jinping was trying to show to the US that China still has a channel to influence Philippine foreign policy directions. If and when Vice President Sara becomes president, then the PR-US ties may be compromised again.

And, assuming that Inday Sara won't be independent from her father's strong biases and prejudices, then our country becomes pro-China and anti-America again. That means that America will most probably interfere with the presidential polls in 2028, as China definitely will. That indicates that Inday will have support from Beijing and Speaker Martin Romualdez will have the support of Washington. Remember that our ambassador to the US is Romualdez, a repeat of when Kokoy, Imelda's favorite brother and Martin's late dad, was our ambassador to Washington, while continuing to serve as Leyte governor. Well, nothing was impossible during martial law. As Senator Jose Avelino from Samar would say: "What are we in power for?"

Foreign policy is vested on the president. That is why President Cory, FVR, Erap, GMA, PNoy were all pro-US. Marcos Sr. and Macapagal were pro-US too, although he got irked later and changed our Independence Day from July 4 to June 12. Only General Aguinaldo was anti-US. Quezon, Osmeña, Laurel, Roxas (he was perhaps the most rabid pro-American aside from Ramon Magsaysay), Quirino, and Garcia were pro-US. But when President Duterte took over, he made no bones about his antagonism against Americans. He is the only Philippine president who never visited the US in all his six years in office while visiting Beijing and Moscow a number of times. That is why the Americans do not like Duterte and they may not be too warm to Inday Sara too, unless she declares total independence for her papa. Which, to me, is very unlikely.

PBBM, in his SONA, will, of course, talk about foreign policy. All presidents before never failed to make some pronouncement on our policies. Article II, Section 2 of our Constitution declares that our country renounces war as a national policy, and we adopt the generally-accepted principles of international law as part of the law of the land. We adhere to a foreign policy of peace with all nations. We also embrace the policy of equality among independent states, whether huge and powerful like the US, China, Russia, and the UK or small ones like Brunei, Singapore, or the Vatican. We also adhere to the international policy of justice, freedom, cooperation, and amity with all nations. These are big words that are easier said than done.

Under Section 7 of the same Article, the Philippines is supposed to pursue an independent foreign policy. In our relations with other independent states, the paramount consideration should be national sovereignty, territorial integrity, national interests, and the right to self-determination. These are what the book says. But down here in the real world, we can never be independent since we need to borrow trillions to help us fund our national budget. We need to import rice to feed our people, we need to import sugar and onions.

We need other countries to supply us with oil and many of our basic needs. We cannot defend the West Philippine Sea alone. We need the weapons and technology of the US. We also need China as our top trading partner. So how will the president say in the SONA that we are pursuing an independent foreign policy? If he says that, some guys may shout back "tell that to the marines".